2023 - 2024 NFL End of Season Awards
It's awards time! Outlining my top candidates for the main end of season awards and who I think should take home the hardware.
With the 2023-2024 regular season wrapped up it’s time to hand out some awards. Due to a large portion of players up for these awards sitting out Week 18 all stats are through Week 17*. Players like C.J. Stroud or CeeDee Lamb who had big Week 18 performances had those factored in but for comparison purposes I left all stats through an even amount of weeks played (not including injury weeks).
*Stats per PFF, FTN Fantasy, rbsdm.com, ESPN & SumerSports
Most Valuable Player
Candidates: QB Lamar Jackson (BAL), QB Josh Allen (BUF), QB Dak Prescott (DAL)
Case for Lamar Jackson: The 2019 MVP is once again the favorite to take home the award. The Raven’s star signal caller is one of the most uniquely gifted players in the league and was a big reason for the 13-4 Ravens getting the top overall seed in the AFC. Jackson’s surface level statistics don’t scream MVP, he is outside the Top-10 in Passing Yards, is 10th in Passing TDs and is only 7th in EPA/Play (a stat that usually heavily correlates with the winner). However, Jackson’s impact isn’t one that is captured well by traditional stats. He brings an immense gravity to the field that impacts the game before he even steps on the field. The Ravens offense ranks 2nd in DVOA and 5th in EPA/P largely because of the dual threat ability he presents. His legs open up lanes for the running game by forcing defenses that defend 11 on 11. His ability as both a passer both in and out of structure as well as his scrambling ability forces defenses into predictable coverages that make everyone’s job easier. Despite multi week injuries to the offensive line and a variety of playmakers the Ravens offense has continued to play at above average to elite levels over the course of the year due to his impact. Oh and he also does stuff like this…
Case for Josh Allen: The Josh Allen MVP case is built on his ability to single handedly carry an offense with both his arms and his legs, displaying some of the highest peaks in the sport. Allen is 4th among QBs in Total Passing EPA and 1st in Rushing EPA, his 49.5 Rushing EPA is almost double the second place mark of 26. So much of the Bills offense relies on Allen making big plays and making up for others' mistakes, he ranks T-3rd in Big Time Throws and 2nd best at limiting sacks with a 9.9% Pressure to Sack Ratio (2nd). This Bills team has been up and down all year due to injuries and coaching changes but the play of Allen has kept the Bills as a Top-5 offense by most metrics, a unit that has kept the lights on as the other side of the ball struggled. Despite a rocky season the Bills, largely due to the play of Allen, were able to secure the #2 seed in the AFC. Week in and week out despite being far from perfect he generates an immense amount of impact plays that routinely power his team to victory despite minimal help from the supporting cast around him for large stretches of the season.
Case for Dak Prescott: The case for Dak Prescott largely revolves around his eye popping passing statistics. The Dallas signal caller is 4th in Yards, 1st in TDs, 2nd in Passer Rating and 3rd in EPA/ATT. Coming off a high interception season that he was (unrightfully) maligned for, in 2023 his 14 Turnover Worthy Plays ranked 20th among qualified quarterbacks and he ranked first in Big Time Throws with 37. If team success is more your thing the Cowboys offense ranked 2nd in EPA/P, 1st in Team Scoring and finished with the 2nd best record in the NFC. The damper on his stellar stats is his difficulty of competition. The Cowboys faced the 3rd easiest schedule of any team in the NFL and Prescott compiled some gaudy stats against lesser opponents. While his performances in big games were hardly lackluster, his impact was typically well above average, he did not show the game changing ability against his toughest opponents needed to take home the hardware.
Winner: Lamar Jackson
Offensive Player of the Year
Candidates: WR Tyreek Hill (MIA), RB Christian McCaffrey (RB), WR CeeDee Lamb (WR)
Case for Tyreek Hill: Hill is one of the most efficient and explosive playmakers in the entire league and is the main engine for a Dolphins passing attack that ranks in the Top 3 by most metrics. Heading into Week 17 his 1,717 Receiving Yards are the top mark in the league and they come on far fewer snaps than his counterparts. Hill’s 3.85 Yards per Route Run ranks 1st in the league, the next closest is Brandon Aiyuk at 3.01, that margin is the same as the one between 2nd and 17th. Primarily thought of as a deep threat early in his career, Hill has produced in other ways in 2023, his 12 TDS rank 2nd among WRs, and his 645 Yards After the Catch rank 2nd. He also ranks 1st in Missed Forced Tackles and in 1st Downs gained. Similar to Lamar Jackson the gravity that Hill generates creates space for everyone else on the offense that can’t always be measured through statistics. His rare speed creates a threat to defenses that opens up so many lanes for the rest of the Dolphins offense.
Case for Christian McCaffrey: McCaffrey’s Offensive Player of the Year case is built on two fronts, his statistical dominance and his unique versatility. Let's start with the stats. The NFL yards leader with 1,459 Rushing Yards - a number that was 300 yards higher than 2nd place - ranked 3rd in Yards per Carry, 2nd in Rushing Touchdowns,1st in Yards After Contact, 1st in Runs of 10+ Yards and 1st in First Downs Gained (by 20). As a receiver (among RBs) he is 3rd in Catches, 2nd in Yards, 1st in Touchdowns and has only 1 drop on the season. He’s also moved the chains 31 total times as a pass catcher. McCaffery, as statistically dominant as he is, makes his impact in more hidden ways as well. The 49ers offense is the top ranked attack not just in 2023 but is one of the best of the past two decades in large part to his ability to stress defenses. His ability as a runner and receiver forces defenses to react in certain ways, not only does he win his mismatches but also opens up opportunities for his teammates. Maybe no better example exists than this double team by the Eagles that allows teammates Jauan Jennings to spring free for a first down.
Case for CeeDee Lamb: At the halfway point of the year this award looked like Hill’s to lose as the top WR in the league, but Lamb has been on a torrid pace in the 2nd half. The league's leader in catches ranks only behind Hill in Receiving Yards, is 3rd in Touchdowns and actually surpasses Hill in Total EPA generated. While Lamb can’t stand up to Hill’s efficiency numbers - he has run over 150 more routes - he is a far more dependable option with 5 Drops to Hill's 9 and 11 Contested Catches to Hill’s 7. It’s unlikely Lamb will win the award but a truly stellar season for one of the best young weapons in football is more than deserving of a Top-3 finish.
Winner: Christian McCaffery
Defensive Player of the Year
Candidates: EDGE Myles Garrett (CLE), EDGE Micah Parsons (DAL), EDGE Maxx Crosby (LV)
Case for Myles Garrett: Garrett is one of the most dominant defenders in football and is a vital cog for the Browns historically great defense. Garrett doesn’t get to rush the passer as much as some of his counterparts, he ranks 21st in Pass Rush Snaps, but that hasn’t prevented him from ranking in the upper echelon of counting stats. His 86 Total Pressures are tied for 5th, his 15 Sacks rank 7th and his 4 Forced Fumbles are tied for 3rd among defensive lineman. Garretts case as the best defender in football largely comes from his in-game impact that doesn’t show up on the stat sheet. The Browns defense often leveraged his impact and gravity as the lead man on stunts to open up room for his teammates (5 other Browns defenders logged 4+ Sacks in ‘23). His peripheral stats also show his impact that isn’t always logged on the traditional box score, notching a 25.1% Win Rate (31.8% in True Pass Sets) and 29% Double Team Rate, both of which are Top-2 marks among EDGE’s in the league.
NFL Double Team Rates
Case for Micah Parsons: Parson’s case for Defensive Player of the Year revolves around his tremendous ability to get to the passer. Through 17 weeks his 102 Pressures are 8 more than 2nd place Nick Bosa. His 15 Sacks are tied for 7th, QB Hits rank 4th and his Win Rate of 25.1% is 2nd to only Myles Garrett (per PFF, ESPN actually has Parson with a 35% to 30% edge). All this comes while being double teamed on 34% of his snaps which ranks highest in the league. Parson’s has also put up these eye popping numbers on 830 snaps which ranks 20th in the league. Few if any players in football have the per snap impact Parson does, his blend of speed and effort off the edge has made him the best pass rusher in all of football in 2023 and a massive reason for Dallas ranking in the Top-5 for most defensive metrics.
Case for Maxx Crosby: No player maximizes his in game impact quite like Maxx Crosby. One of the elite EDGE rushers in all of football, Crosby almost literally never takes plays off. His 95.3% of total team snaps is easily the highest mark in the league for defensive lineman, no one else has more than 90! Crosby is a tremendous run defender, his 56 STOPs are the best mark among defensive lineman with no one else clearing the 50 mark. His pass rush marks also rank near the top of the league ranking 5th in Pressures, 9th in Sacks and 4th in Hurries.
Winner: Micah Parsons
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Candidates: QB C.J Stroud (HOU), WR Puka Nacua (LAR), TE Sam LaPorta (DET)
Case for CJ Stroud: C.J. Stroud announced himself to the NFL in 2023 with one of the best rookie QB seasons in NFL history. Heading into Week 17 he is in rarefied air in terms of passing yards for a first year signal caller, with the expectation he will be joining a club of four other passers who had over 4,000 Passing Yards in their first years (Update: He did…in spectacular fashion).
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Stroud’s Year 1 performance has already solidified himself as a Top-10, arguably Top-7 QB in the league as well. Despite only playing 14 games through 17 weeks he is 9th in Total Passing yards. His efficiency numbers are even better, ranking 3rd in Yards per Attempt, 2nd in TD/INT ratio, 6th in Passer Rating and 10th in EPA/Play. This all has come while pushing the ball down field with aggression as well (his Average Depth of Target of 9.4 ranks 3rd).
Case for Puka Nacua: Puka Nacua has been one of the best stories in all of football in 2023, bursting onto the scene with arguably the best season by a rookie WR in NFL history. The NFL record holder for Receiving Yards and Receptions by a rookie in a single season ranked Top-5 in the league in Yards, Yards after the Catch and 1st Downs. He led all rookie pass catchers in those marks as well as Receptions and Yards per Route Run. The latest member of the Matthew Stafford buddy club was a vital cog in a Rams offense that ranked Top-10 by most metrics through his impact, not just as a receiver, but also as a run blocker as well.
Case for Sam LaPorta: LaPorta, a likely All-Pro, was one of the best TE’s in all of football in 2023 and had one of the best seasons by a rookie TE ever, finishing with the most receptions by a rookie TE in NFL history. He finished inside the Top-20 among pass catchers for Receptions, Touchdowns and Contested Catches. Among the rookie class he led the pack in Touchdowns and Contested Catches while also being Top-3 in Receptions, Yards and 1st Downs. Tight End is one of the most difficult positions for rookies to make an immediate impact at, but his emergence as one of the best receiving TE’s in football proved to be a massive boon for a Lions offense in desperate need of a secondary playmaker. The Lions offense which ranked among the league elite in 2023 in large part due to LaPorta, was the engine behind Detroit's first NFC North title.
Winner: Puka Nacua
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Candidates: IDL Jalen Carter (PHI), EDGE Will Anderson (HOU), IDL Kobi Turner (LAR)
Case for Kobi Turner: One of the big bright spots for a tremendous rookie class for the Los Angeles Rams, Turner’s accession over the latter half of the year was a big reason for the Rams push into the playoffs. The rookie class sack leader with 11 (20th in the NFL), was one of the most consistent and disruptive players in the entire class. High sack numbers playing across from Aaron Donald can often mean clean up stats but Turner was more than just a Robin to Donald’s Batman. He also led the defensive line class in STOPs with 36 and was Top-5 in pressures and win rate. One of the bigger combine snubs from the 2023 class has quickly emerged as one of the top young defensive lineman in football and a legit candidate to take home the hardware.
Case for Will Anderson: No rookie in the 2023 class has displayed the start to finish consistency and production that Will Anderson has had. The #3 overall pick in the class stepped in day one as the #1 rusher on an upstart Texans team and has done nothing but produce. Despite being double teamed at the 3rd highest rate in the NFL, Anderson ranks Top-30 among defensive lineman in both pressures and win rate. He holds the top mark for all rookies in pressures, QB hurries and QB hits. He also ranks inside the Top-5 in terms of Sacks, Stops and Win Rate. The biggest argument for Anderson to win the award is actually how the Texans played when he was off the field. When Anderson missed time, as he did towards the end of the regular season with an ankle injury, the Texans defense allowed a QBR of 67.9 with a pressure rate of 30%, a sharp decrease from the 46.3 and 33.5% respectively when he was on the field.
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Case for Jalen Carter: The case for Jalen Carter to win Defensive Rookie of the Year starts with his per snap efficiency. Carter ranks 21st in Win Rate among all defensive lineman, which is also the number one rank in the rookie class. His overall counting stats are not as impressive on a surface level, 5th in pressures and 7th in sacks, but considering they came on only 527 snaps (7th most among rookie DL) his per snap numbers are outstanding. The problem with Carter? He has seen a sharp decline in the second half of the year, as pretty much all of the Eagles defense has, logging only 2 Sacks and 0 QB Hits since Philly’s Week 10 bye.
Winner: Will Anderson
Coach of the Year
Coach of the Year might be the hardest award to narrow down, let alone find a winner this year, frankly any year for that matter. There are a multitude of coaches who deserve credit each and every year and it really boils down to what style you prefer. Are big improvements in record your preference? Maybe you like fighting through in-season setbacks, or retooling a formerly great roster. For some it may be the chase for greatest and finding those edges to be the best of the best. I was able to narrow it down to four candidates each with a different flavor.
Candidates: HC Kevin Stefanski (CLE), HC Sean McVay (LAR), HC Kyle Shanahan (SF), HC DeMeco Ryans (HOU)
Case for Kevin Stefanski: If you like your coaches to create killer staffs or coaches who can adjust to injuries mid season Kevin Stefanski is your guy. The odds on favorite to win the award captained the Cleveland Browns to an 11 win playoff berth while using 4 separate QBs. For all the jokes and memes about the eliteness of Joe Flacco, pulling him off the couch and ending up with 11 wins is remarkable. The main reason they were able to do that was the success of their Top-3 rated defense (#2 by DVOA). The defense, which had struggled in years past, showed a big turn around under new DC Jim Schwartz, a Stefanski hire. While Stefanski’s side of the ball, offense, wasn’t anything to write home about, his ability to patch it together and create a supporting unit, given the less than ideal circumstances, that didn't hamstring his elite defense is one of the best coaching jobs in all of 2023.
Case for Sean McVay: The Rams were dead and done this time a year ago. Post Super Bowl hangover, Stafford was old and injured, Aaron Donald was retiring and McVay was headed for the TV booth. Fast forward 12 months and they are a 10 win team heading to Detroit in the Wild Card round as one of the most trendy sleepers in all of football. The Rams have vastly out performed their 6.5 win total from the preseason and are largely doing it by relying on rookies and journeyman vets. Yes Stafford is excellent and playing MVP caliber football, but it’s a credit to McVay that he got the rest of the roster ready to go around him, especially given the five game absence of Cooper Kupp. The 2023 Rams had seven 1st or 2nd year starters in 2023 and eight total that logged over 450 snaps. Having future HOF’s at key positions always helps but getting 19 other roster spots plus depth pieces to be filled by essentially rookies and street free agents en route to a 10 win season and a Top-10 offense is a special feat.
Case for Kyle Shanahan: Kyle Shanahan won’t win this award. Team’s with the perceived strength of the 49ers, 12.5 O/U for win total and Top-3 preseason Super Bowl odds, rarely sport coach of the year honors because their greatness is expected. At a surface level glance, it doesn’t even look like they improved, they actually had a worse record in 2023 (12-5) than in 2022 (13-4), but the NFC’s #1 overall seed put together one of the best seasons of all time. DVOA’s 2nd ranked team was the #1 overall offense in football and the #4 defense during the 2023 season. They are the 8th best team since 1981 according to DVOA (they would be sixth if you don’t include the Week 18 where they rested their starters).
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Outside the numbers, Shanahan’s offensive side of the ball is lauded as one of the most unique creative and unstoppable units in recent memory. The difference between their 31.8% Offensive DVOA and the 2nd place Bills (20.9%) was the same difference as the one between 2nd and 8th place. They held a 0.058 EPA advantage over 2nd (difference between 2nd and 7th) and a 3.2% advantage in Success Rate over 2nd place as well (difference between 2nd and 8th). The 2023 49ers offense under Kyle Shanahan is one of the most talented and productive units in NFL history and is a major reason for their top seeding in the NFC and why they are the odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl.
Case for DeMeco Ryans: There might not be a better story than the Houston Texans in 2023. After a disastrous 2022 season, a Texans team that had not won over 4 games since 2019, brought in Ryans as a first time coach to turn their team around. Ryans and the #2 overall pick in the draft C.J. Stroud lead the Texans to a 10-7 finish and their first division title since 2019. The upstart Texans ranked as the #12 overall team by DVOA in 2023, a particularly impressive feat for a team that was essentially compiled in one offseason, starting 13 new players by years end. The defensive side of the ball, Ryans specialty, displayed a massive improvement from 2022 jumping from 18 to 14th in EPA/P, 26 to 9th in Success Rate, and 28th to 16th in DVOA in just his first year. Ryan’s also checks all the boxes for coaches that traditionally win this award, massive record improvement, scrappy upstart team with a story and a playoff berth.