2024 NFL Award Predictions
It's almost the start of the NFL season which means it's time for NFL Honors predictions for all the major awards....
Article includes a Winner and Darkhorse (+1000 odds or worse) for each of the major NFL Honors Award including: MVP, Offensive Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, Offensive Rookie of the Year, Defensive Rookie of the Year, Coach of the Year and Comeback Player of the Year.
Most Valuable Player
Winner: Josh Allen (+900)
Josh Allen has been one of the best quarterbacks in football since his breakout in 2020 alongside Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes, but unlike them he has yet to bring in an MVP award. Outside of some higher turnover numbers that have been largely been inflated by usage rate and bad luck, the Allen’s counting stats have never been the problem. Allen has ranked inside the Top-10 in both yards and touchdowns each year since 2020, his problem has been getting the right narrative. Typically top QBs need an excellent team record in addition to the stats to secure the hardware but Allen has the chance to really hit the “Valuable” part of MVP in 2024. The loss of longtime WR1 Stefon Diggs has left the name value of the Bills skill position players rather lackluster. If Allen can put up a similar season statistically as he has in previous years while leading the Bills to the playoffs he should win MVP as one of the biggest hard carries in the league.
Darkhorse: Jared Goff (+2000)
Starting quarterback of the team with the potential to have the #1 overall record and offense in the league? Could do worse for long-odds.
Offensive Player of the Year
Winner: Tyreek Hill (+700)
There was an excellent case for Tyreek Hill to win Offensive Player of the Year last year over Christian McCaffery. Hill was Top-5 among WRs in largely every category while leading the league in Yards, Touchdowns and Yards per Route Run. With the Dolphins essentially returning the same roster on offense as last year, he is likely to push for those same numbers again. Assuming both players stay healthy, it might just come down to Hill and Christian McCaffery again this year, and we haven’t seen a back-to-back winner since Marshall Faulk in 2001.
Darkhorse: Amon-Ra St. Brown (+1800)
Similar to Goff, St. Brown is WR1 on a team with potentially the top offense and record in the league and should put up fantastic numbers.
Defensive Player of the Year
Winner: Maxx Crosby (+700)
Maxx Crosby is perennially one of the most underrated defenders in all of football. Crosby is a rare breed in terms of effort and consistency, leading all defensive lineman in snaps in back to back years. He has logged double digit sack campaigns each of the last two seasons, while improving on his total each year. The biggest difference for Crosby this year is he finally has some help. His running mate Malcolm Koonce and F/A addition Christian Wilkins will force teams to send attention elsewhere and should open up more 1 on 1 assignments for Crosby. Another leap in sack totals combined with his always stellar availability sets the stage for his national break out.
Darkhorse: Aidan Hutchinson (+1100)
Similar to Crosby, Hutchinson is a high usage player with good traditional numbers on a team that improved the help around him.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Winner: Caleb Williams (+135)
Like most offensive awards the Offensive Rookie of the Year award is dominated by quarterbacks and typically highly drafted ones. Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels are the two favorites for the award due to their dual threat ability and penchant highlight plays. Williams has two distinct advantages over Daniels to win the award. One, his team is simply better. The Bears after an aggressive past couple off-season’s and good rookie drafts have a projected win total of 9.5 compared a the 6.5 mark for a Washington team in the first year of their rebuild. Second, the Bears are one of the public's favorite teams. Hard Knocks stars, a historic franchise with a massive fan base and the #1 overall pick are all huge boosts for awards that can be shifted by public perception a lot of the time.
Darkhorse: Malik Nabers (+1400)
It’s basically impossible for non-QBs to win this award unless the draft class stinks, but Nabers should get a ton of targets in a team that will be throwing from behind a lot giving him the chance to win if the QBs falter.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Winner: Laiatu Latu (+400)
Similar to quarterbacks with offensive awards, defensive awards are typically dominated by pass rushers - 7 of the last 10 DROY have gone to defensive lineman - because they affect the quarterback and have the numbers to back up their impact. The most pro-ready of all the pass rushers in this class is Laiatu Latu for the Indianapolis Colts. The highest drafted defender in the class is a technician off the edge who should have a big role after the loss of Samson Ebukam, which should allow him to push for double digit sacks in his rookie campaign.
Darkhorse: Chop Robinson (+1600)
An uber-athletic designated pass rusher playing for a team with injury concerns at EDGE who could put up enough sack numbers to steal the award.
Comeback Player of the Year
Winner: Joe Burrow (+300)
Comeback Player of the Year this year largely comes down to what previously injured quarterback do you think will have the best season. Due to a high injury rate last year, the crop in 2024 with Burrow, Aaron Rogers, Kirk Cousins and Anthony Richardson is pretty tough. Of the four, Burrow is the only one currently in his prime and projects to suffer the least from his injury. He also has the best set of skill players, led by Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins around, which should allow him him to put up tremendous numbers.
Darkhorse: Nick Chubb (+1200)
Is a running back going to win this award given this years cast? Probably not, but Chubb has a history of tremendous production in an offense that wants to run the ball, creating the potential to finish on the podium if any of the QBs struggle.
Coach of the Year
Winner: Mike MacDonald (+1000)
Only one coach in the past 30 years of the award has won with less than double digit wins (Brian Daboll in 2022 at 9-7-1) which limits a lot of candidates. Quite simply, coaches of bad teams don’t win this award. While the Seahawks don’t project to win that many games according to the betting odds (7.5 O/U) it’s not unreasonable to see a path where they get there. This is a team that ranked 10th in EPA/P and Success Rate on offense last year despite a multitude of injuries and returns most of the same personell. If Coach MacDonald can turn around a defense that ranked 27th in EPA/P (10th in SR) they have a legit shot to make the playoffs with 10+ wins and MacDonald’s specialty - defense - will be a primary reason why.
Darkhorse: Jonathan Gannon (+1700)
If a coach is going to win it with less than 10 wins Gannon would be my bet. This offense should be much improved and the defense, his calling card, outpunched its weight class last year. 9 wins and a Wild Card berth could get it done with a preseason win total of 5.5.