49ers Receive Midwest Wakeup Call
The 49ers were never going to go 17-0, at some point there would be a let down game. It's the NFL, stuff happens, but I don't think San Francisco and it's fans thought that game would come so soon.
Coming off a massive Sunday Night win to get to 5-0 on the season the 49ers were riding high. That all came crashing down on the shores of Lake Erie in a 19-17 loss to the Cleveland Browns. In a sloppy performance San Francisco underwent the perfect storm to suffer their first loss of the season. And by storm, I mean both literally and figuratively, Sunday was a wet windy game in which the 49ers had by far their worst performance of the season in a game that ended up in missed FG by rookie K Jake Moody. For the first time this year San Francisco was outgained, outscored and frankly outcoached.
The defensive side of the ball wasn’t horrible, but that was to be expected facing a banged up Brown’s offense with backup QB PJ Walker at the helm. They held the Browns offense to 174 yards passing, had 2 sacks on 20 pressures, forced 2 turnovers in plus territory and limited Cleveland to a measly 3-13 conversion rate on third down. The biggest issue to highlight on defense was the run game, something that is becoming a reoccurring concern. The Browns and their strong offensive line average 4.8 Yards per Carry and had 41% Success Rate (50% on 3rd & 4th Down), which allowed their offense to control the clock with a 33:03 T.O.P. Despite the Browns rushing success the 49ers defense only allowed 19 points and came in as one of the better units on the week.
The problem? One of the other standout units in Week 6 was on the other side of the ball. On Sunday the 49ers had their worst offensive performance in terms of Success Rate in the Shanahan era since 2017. If you look at the roster from that Week 2 game in 2017, it looks a lot different than the one San Francisco currently trots out, especially when it comes to the skill position group.
A large reason for the poor performance is that the Browns defense they played is really freaking good. Through 6 weeks Cleveland’s Jim Schwartz lead defense ranks at the top of the league in terms of EPA/P, Success Rate and DVOA. When you take that and sprinkle own some serious coaching ownage, Schwartz is 8-1 (now 9-1) in his career versus Kyle Shanahan and has never given up over 24 points in those games, you get an offensive performance like you got Sunday.
The Browns defense did a fantastic job on Sunday at making QB Brock Purdy beat them with his arm. They ran Man Coverage on a staggering 71% of their plays, forcing Purdy and the 49ers to beat their stellar DB group play in and play out. The Browns rank as one of the best coverage units in football and are at the top of the league in most metrics when running Man Coverage.
As you can see in the tweet above Purdy did not handle this challenge well. He finished the day with comfortable the worst stat line of his young career, going 12/27 for 125 YDS with 1 TD and 1 INT (3 Turnover Worthy Plays). The underlying analytics were not any better with a -0.022 EPA/P and 31% Success Rate on the day. Purdy displayed poor accuracy during the entirety of the game (-14% CPOE), the wind and rain playing a major factor as it exposed some of his physical limitations. With only 9.25” hands (24th Percentile) it was difficult for him to hang onto the ball at times. It also caused his accuracy to fluctuate resulting in multiple errant throws, one of which found the hands of a Browns defender for his first INT of the year.
To add to the struggles for Purdy he had to play multiple snaps without three of the 49ers best offensive players. Trent Williams (ankle), Deebo Samuel (shoulder) and Christian McCaffery (ribs) all missed time during the game Sunday. For a young QB like Brock Purdy, who to his credit has played well to start the year, losing his two biggest easy buttons in Samuel (9 Snaps) and McCaffery (36), exposed some of the limitations in his game. His lack of elite physical attributes became more apparent in the bad weather as well his lack of experience when faced with a truly elite defense.
Now I don’t think anyone is too shocked that Purdy struggled in his first big time test without all his stars, well unless you have been sipping the morning talk show Kool-Aid telling you he is a legit MVP candidate. Purdy is a young player that is buoyed by his system, he has played better than his predecessors and gotten better each week, but he still isn’t quite ready to shoulder the load in a game like Sunday. It wasn’t all Purdy’s fault though, 12 penalties for 105 yards is unacceptable from a team with Super Bowl aspirations, add in sloppy route spacing and shoddy pass protection it was a melting pot of poor play that led to the loss.
The good news for San Francisco, very few teams have the ability to recreate the environment they faced on Sunday. Most teams in the NFL don’t have an elite defense to trot out in the rain, while the 49ers don’t have CMC or Deebo. Even with everything that went wrong the game still came down to a missed field goal to decide it. Assuming the injuries to McCaffery and Samuel are not long term issues, this past Sunday will likely be looked at as a bump in the road. A good learning moment for not just Purdy but the team as a whole that they need to bring their A game every week.
Next up? The 49ers head to Minneapolis to take on the 2-4 Minnesota Vikings, in what should be a far easier and drier contest.