49ers Ride Splash Plays to 28-16 win
The 49ers continue their win streak and recent dominance of their division rival Seattle with a 28-16 win...
14 weeks into the season, following a 28-16 win over the Seattle Seahawks and a pair of losses by the Packers and Eagles, the San Francisco 49ers are the first team to clinch a playoff spot and are in the drivers seat for the #1 overall seed in the NFC. Sunday’s win over Seattle was far from the 49ers cleanest of the year but once again their talent on both sides of the ball was able to smooth over any mistakes as they climbed to 4-0 in the NFC West on the year.
Offense
The theme of the 49ers offensive performance on Sunday was explosive plays and talent dominance. The overall numbers for the San Francisco offense look fantastic on paper, with 28 points, 527 total yards, all while averaging almost 10 yards per play, but it wasn’t that clean on tape. Despite a gaudy yards total and averaging 0.24 EPA/P the 49ers offense had it’s up’s and downs. Their 43% Success Rate was a full 7 percentage points below their season average. Add in a pair of three and outs as well as two turnovers the offense allowed an undermanned Seattle team to hang in far longer than it should have.
Explosive Playmakers
The reason the 49ers were able to overcome their mistakes and cruise to victory was because of the talent of their playmakers. Despite a low success rate the 49ers were able to compile a ridiculous amount of yards due to 11 plays of 20+ yards and the dominance of their Big 4 skill players:
Christian McCaffery: 16 ATT - 145 YDS - 4 10+ Plays - Long of 72 YDS
Brandon Aiyuk: 6 REC - 126 YDS - 5 10+ Plays - Long of 45 YDS
Deebo Samuel: 7 REC - 149 YDS - 2 TOT TD - 5 10+ Plays - Long of 54 YDS
George Kittle: 3 REC - 76 YDS - 1 TD - 2 10+ Plays - Long of 44
Both Samuel and Kittle scored on 40+ yard plays that involved them torching Seattle defenders down the field.
The 49ers were consistently able to find explosives when behind the chains or in need of a spark. While not a consistent gameplan it was a reminder of the talent their offense employs and how it can bail them out.
Purdy, Inconsistent but Explosive
A big reason for the inconsistent yet explosive offensive approach was the play of QB Brock Purdy. His overall stat line was great. Finishing once again with over a 70% completion percentage and threw for 368 YDS with a pair of scores but it wasn’t quite perfect.
Early in the game Purdy struggled to operate within the structure of the offense. Seattle fooled him on multiple occasions by buzzing down a SAF into the hook zone of Cover 3.
Purdy also had a few miscommunications with his WRs, one of which ended up in the hands of a Seattle defender. A big reason the 49ers had to rely on explosives was an inability to be effective on early passing downs. Purdy and the 49ers passing attack only had a 38% Early Down Passing Success Rate, with Purdy looking unlike his usual sharp self on quick underneath throws.
Where Purdy was excellent was down the field and outside of structure. He finished with 6 completions of 10+ yards for 225 YDS and 2 TDs on Sunday. The throws to George Kittle and Deebo Samuel above being prime examples. Purdy was also very strong when asked to create, a sharp contrast from his struggles on quicker throws. He was able to escape trouble and find Aiyuk or Samuel in the scramble drill on a multitude of plays.
Again living off explosives and out of structure plays is not a sustainable way to run an offense but it does show how this Niners team is different from ones in years past. The ability for their QB to create and make plays when the initial play breaks down or when he is simply having an off day in the pocket is a massive boon for this San Francisco team.
Defense
The 49ers defense, as it has been every week since the Week 9 bye, was fantastic once again. Facing Seattle’s back up QB, Drew Lock, they held the Seahawks offense to only 16 points on under 6 yards per play. Seattle finished the day with a -0.03 EPA/P and a success rate of 37%. The defense did give up a pair of explosive plays for touchdowns but were able to get that back with splash negative plays of their own by compiling 4 sacks and 2 turnovers.
Rookie Standout
One of the biggest standouts on the defensive side of the ball was rookie SAF Ji’Ayir Brown. Brown has been a solid player since taking over the full time role 3 weeks ago, but Sunday might have been his best performance yet. He led the defense in snaps (59) and chipped in 5 TKLs with 0 missed, allowed 1 catch for 3 yards and even logged what was essentially a game sealing INT.
Brown showed the ability to close down from split safety looks in the run game.
As well as close out of underneath zone coverage to make tackles in space.
His INT in the late 2nd half even showed an ability to make plays out of single high coverage, something that was a concern on his college scouting report due to middling athleticism.
Losing an All-Pro SAF like Hufanga is never easy to replace, but the rookie has been playing well above average football for almost a month now and has been a vital cog in a 49ers defense that is playing better than ever.
Tackling Issues Continue to Linger
One lingering concern for the 49ers defense that has continued to show up in recent weeks is missed tackles. The 49ers missed 14 tackles on Sunday and had too many plays like this Kenneth Walker run that was allowed to gain a significant amount of yards due to poor form.
Through 14 weeks this 49ers defense has missed 98 tackles, already 8 more than they missed in the 2022 regular season entirely. Missed tackles were a major issue during their 3-game skid before the bye. It has not been as much of an issue recently due to more splash plays via sacks and turnovers but for a team with Super Bowl hopes its an area of concern that must be cleaned up as they match up with better teams.
What’s Next
Next up for the 49ers is a trip down to the desert to take on a scrappy Cardinals team fresh off a bye. San Francisco has a chance to wrap up the NFC West with a win but it will be far from easy. IDL Javon Hargrave, CB Charvarius Ward and LB Oren Burks all appear unlikely to play as the toll of a season is beginning to compile injuries. Despite a 3-10 record Arizona is no pushover with their latest game being a win over the then 7-4 Pittsburg Steelers. Sunday will be a good test for some rotation players on the DL and in the secondary to show what they can do in bigger roles and hopefully help the team wrap up the division.