A Sluggish Offensive Performance Drops the 49ers to 1-3 in the NFC West
Two weeks out of the bye and the 49ers performance and fortunes have yet to change. With another 4th quarter collapse the 49ers season sits on the thinnest of margins heading into the holiday season.
The 49ers fell to the Seattle Seahawks 20-17 on Sunday following a familiar script of a slow starting offense, and a defense that ran out of steam late. Following a 3rd straight 4th quarter collapse against a division opponent, the faith in a classic Shanahan 2nd half turn around appears to be dimming.
The 49ers defense performed the best of the three units on Sunday, holding the Seahawks to 13 points and a shade over 200 yards through 58 minutes. They forced 2 turnovers - one of which was a interception their offense could only turn into 20 yards and 3 points - had 4 sacks and limited a red zone interception from their own offense to only a field goal. The Seahawks offense struggled to get much going in the run game, a typical weakness for the 49ers, and outside of late game Geno Smith heroics was average in the passing game.
However, like most games in which the offense doesn’t pulled away, the defense failed to hold up late, allowing Smith and the Seahawks to drive 80 yards on 11 plays in 2 and half minutes, walking off the game. The 49ers and their pass rush particularly struggled when star EDGE rusher Nick Bosa departed with a hip/oblique issue in the 2nd half.
While the defense was far from perfect they did more than enough to win the game and were let down by their offense, an unit who put up one of their worst performances of the year versus an middling Seattle Seahawks defense.
Offensively, the running game struggled to generate its typical explosiveness and effectiveness. The traditional stats of 131 rushing yards at over 4 yards a carry doesn’t appear terrible, but those are boosted by Purdy’s scrambles - an area of his game where he was excellent once again with 40 yards and a score on the ground - and the advanced metrics paint a even less favorable picture with a -0.12 EPA per rush for the day. Part of the reason for the struggles was the absence of TE George Kittle, who to the surprise of no one is a key figure in their running game. The other is Christian McCaffery still isn’t quite himself. McCaffery in his second game back from the Achilles injury isn’t playing poorly, but lacks the burst to turn 5 yard runs into those gashing 20+ yard carries. In his two games back from injury he has 32 carries and only forced 2 missed tackles, with a 2.50 average yards after contact (it would be his first season under 3.00 since 2020). It begs the question where has Jordan Mason, an early season sensation for the 49ers, gone? Why is the older back in McCaffery, fresh off an injury, tossed back into a full time role without his talented understudy to help him out?
For as bad as the run game was, the passing game was even worse, averaging a measly 159 yards on 28 attempts, Purdy’s lowest total since Week 6 of 2023 against Cleveland. The struggles in the passing game were a mixed bag with no true culprit. Outside of Jauan Jennings, who was once again fantastic with 10 receptions for 91 yards and a score, no other 49ers player was able to crack 30 yards. Each of the offensive lineman allowed at least a pressure and took turns losing reps that impacted plays. And then the head of the operation, QB Brock Purdy, was inconsistent once again on Sunday. While he was fantastic with his legs and made his fair share of throws, he had too many poor choices or missed throws that stalled drives. In the first half he forced a tight window throw underneath to McCaffery leading to an interception and 3 points for Seattle.
Then late in the game he missed a open in-breaker to Deebo Samuel, a classic staple in their passing attack, that would have moved the chains and allowed the 49ers to drain the clock.
Despite most metrics pointing to the fact that the 49ers offense is a Top-10 unit, they continue to struggle to live up to their billing. Slow starts and inconsistent red zone offense continues to allow inferior teams to stick around and has now cost them multiple games.
The 49ers are now two weeks removed from their bye week and the return of McCaffery and look like the exact same team. It is quickly becoming apparent that without big changes this team is exactly what their record says, average. Sitting at 5-5 and 1-3 in the division with trips to Green Bay and Buffalo up next, the 2024 season hangs on life support with less than half the year to go and not a lot of confidence it will turn around.