Another 4th Quarter Blown Lead Drops the 49ers to 2-3 on the Season
Struggles in the red zone, turnovers and poor run defense continue to be a problem for the 49ers as they drop their second straight divisional contest
For the second time in three games, the San Francisco 49ers threw away a multiple score lead in the 4th Quarter in a game they had over an 85% chance to win. Similar to the Rams game, the 49ers failed to put away an inferior team in the 4th quarter before ill timed turnovers and a poor run defense eventually sunk them. This time around there was no special teams errors to blame it on either. While having no kicker is unfortunate - K Jake Moody hurt his ankle in the first half - a big blocked field goal for a score put the special teams unit easily in the green for the game.
There is plenty of blame to go around on both sides of the ball, as is usually the case in this type of loss. The defense failed once again to contain an opposing teams run game, allowing 169 rushing yards on a 52% success rate. A run unit that has struggled all year deteriorated late on a hot afternoon, particularly when it came to tackling, with 12 misses on the day. The offense, despite almost 400 yards of offense, had 0 second half points (without punting!) and 3 turnovers. There are a bunch of different reasons to be concerned from Sunday but the biggest concern for the 49ers going forward, something that continues allows inferior opponents to stay in the game, is poor performances in the red zone.
Last year San Francisco was the best red zone team in football converting 68% of their trips into touchdowns, a number that jumped to 83% in goal-to-go situations. This year? They are at 41% and 50% in those categories, which is good for 30th and 31st in the league respectively. So what’s different this year? Well not having the reigning Offensive Player of the Year in Christian McCaffery doesn’t help. His gravity and ability to create and win mismatches in an area of the field where the margins are so much finer is a huge deal. He is also simply a better runner in confined spaces than Jordan Mason. Mason, who has been one of the breakout stars early in the season, is a bigger back who struggles with foot quickness and finding narrow gaps. Despite his size and power he struggles to win short yardage reps near the goal line if he cannot get his speed up. On Sunday Mason had only four runs in the red zone, one of which was successful, with the 49ers opting to pass most of the time (much to the chagrin of some fans). The reality was despite over 150 rushing yards on the day the 49ers struggled to consistently run the ball, finishing with only a 30% success rate on the day. In an area of the field where explosives don’t really exist, a consistent run game was needed and they just didn’t have it.
Of course just the loss of McCaffery isn’t responsible for a near 30% drop in productivity, especially for a 49ers offense that usually excels at scoring points. QB Brock Purdy has been amazing to start the year in terms of creating explosives in and out of structure this year, which naturally has led to longer time to throws. In open space with San Francisco’s playmakers that’s great, but in the confined red zone a QB without elite rushing tools needs to be quick and decisive, a thought Purdy himself echoed Monday.
The best example of this from Sunday was their first trip in the red zone, where Jauan Jennings has outside leverage on a corner route and Purdy just doesn’t throw it. Instead bailing from the pocket and taking a sack.
Is it a clean win from Jennings? No, not really, but in the red zone sometimes getting your tallest WR with outside leverage on a corner route is the best look you are going to get and you have to trust letting the ball fly. It’s the type of play one would have to imagine Purdy is referencing in the quote above. It was also not the only opportunity where a WR of his in the red zone had a sliver of space but he just waited for the perfect throw and never got.
Purdy has also been late to get the ball out on underneath passes moving to his left this year. Typically struggling to place the ball in a spot where his receiver can get their shoulders towards the goal line. The one that stood out this week was a short boot leg to George Kittle. While it is a completion, the high late throw forces Kittle to adjust and doesn’t allow him to get into the endzone.
Not the end of the world on its own but it also happened in Week 4 on a similar pass to Deebo Samuel.
And in Week 2 on a corner route to Brandon Aiyuk.
Small, minor mistakes but the type when in that area of the field, an area of such fine margins, that are the difference for a team struggling to convert drives into touchdowns.
A potential answer to the 49ers problems until McCaffery is back, is the continued use of George Kittle, who’s size and ability with the ball in his hands is a weapon. Screens, jet sweeps, and even fade routes - the later of which they tried and could not connect one - are great ways to weaponize one of the games great TE’s until their star RB is back.
The good thing for the 49ers is it’s not all doom and gloom. Despite their overall record, their offense ranks 10th in DVOA, 8th in EPA/P and 11th in Success Rate. The defense despite a porous run unit ranks 6th in DVOA (off the strength of their pass defense that ranks 2nd) and 12th in EPA/P.
So good news the team doesn’t suck! Bad news, they are out of mulligan games. Sitting at 0-3 in the conference and 0-2 in division, with a short week heading up to Seattle is not a good spot to be in. With three games before the bye week, two of which are against NFC opponents anything other than 2-1 puts the season on razor thin margins for a team with Super Bowl aspirations.