Familiar Issues Plague The 49ers in a 23-20 Road Win
The bye week and Christian McCaffery were supposed to jumpstart the 49ers after a slow first two months but instead they look a lot like the same team as before.
The post-bye week 49ers in the Kyle Shanahan era have routinely been one of the most successful and dominant teams in the NFL. With the return of superstar RB Christian McCaffery, they were supposed to explode down the stretch, starting with this past Sunday. Instead their 23-20 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers looked pretty much the same as most of their early season games. The offense moved the ball well but struggled to punch it in the endzone. The defense got off to a strong start but wore down as the game went on. And special teams did it’s best to throw away the game with a muffed punt and three missed field goals.
Let’s start with the positives. The defensive side of the ball was easily the best unit on Sunday, holding a Tampa Bay passing attack that ranked Top-10 by most metrics (even without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans) to a 110 yards through the air. They didn’t give up a full length touchdown drive until the early 4th Quarter (Tampa’s first score came off a muffed punt that forced a short field) and only gave up 215 total yards on the day.
The one weak spot for the defense was again it’s run defense where it allowed 110 rushing yards on 27 carries (4.1 YPC). The traditional stats don’t look amazing but the Bucs still only averaged -0.04 EPA/Rush and had zero explosive runs (15+ yards) on the day. An elite day through the air and an average day on the ground for the 49ers defense should have been enough to put this game away with ease if the other two units did their part.
Speaking of the other units. The offense continued to struggle to find its 2023 form. The final numbers look good with over 400 yards of total offense and a 0.29 EPA/Play but it only resulted in 23 points. Now part of that stems from 9 points left on the field by missed kicks, but going against a Bucs defense that ranks in the Bottom-5 of most defensive categories, field goals shouldn’t even be in the equation.
A big reason for the 49ers struggles this year on offense despite moving the ball well, have stemmed from an inability to convert in the red zone. The idea was a week off for the bye plus the return of McCaffery would help solve those issues. The results instead were a 1 for 3 day in the red zone with the only touchdown coming from a miracle play by Brock Purdy and George Kittle.
The 49ers offense struggled to run the ball all day, averaging a measly 2.2 yards per carry with a -0.17 EPA/Rush. In the red zone specifically they average an even worse 0.5 YPC.
Even if the run game wasn’t working the return of Christian McCaffery was supposed to also open up space in the passing game, which didn’t quite happen on Sunday. The space was there in moments but the lack of reps and practice time resulted in them slipping away before Purdy could find them. On this red zone throw for instance, he takes a deep out to Pearsall against a well positioned DB. It’s not a horrible throw but McCaffery is wide open on the backside of the progression.
In years past Purdy would turn down a low percentage like that and quickly work find his guy underneath, something he failed to do Sunday. It’s also not always on Purdy, as sometimes the pressure up front didn’t allow him to get to his guy. This play isn’t red zone but Purdy gets McCaffery 1-on-1 with a linebacker in space but pressure from the interior forces him off his spot before he can get there.
It’s only been one week but the changes have yet to come on the offensive side of the ball many were anticipating. While there is is plenty of time for things to improve and there were flashes in this game of CMC turning the tides, if the same problems continue to rear their head a month from now, it becomes increasingly more likely that it won’t be fixed and this just who the 49ers offense is in 2024.
However, it’s not all doom and gloom on the offensive side of the ball. The pass catchers for the 49ers were excellent with 5 different players logging over 55 yards. Jauan Jennings, in his first time starting at X WR, went for 93 yards on 7 catches, including a huge run after the catch to set up the game winning field goal.
Rookie WR Ricky Pearsall is starting to look like the player they drafted in the first round with 73 yards on 4 catches, including a big 46 yard score in the first half for his first career TD.
Next up is a huge divisional bout versus the Seattle Seahawks at home, a team that beat earlier in the year but remain close on their heels in a crowded NFC West.