Justin Herbert Continues to Preserve Brandon Staley’s Job
Despite a near career best performance from Herbert on Sunday the Chargers once again almost Chargered away the game due to a poor defensive performance and questionable coaching choices.
As long as I can remember the San Diego now Los Angeles Chargers have found new and innovative ways to break the hearts of their fans. It has spanned multiple QBs, a HOF RB and a variety of coaches so it should probably surprise no one that the Justin Herbert/Brandon Staley pairing has done much of the same since it came together in 2021. A historic choke job to the Jacksonville Jaguars in the 2022 playoffs and a brutal 0-2 start to the 2023 season had Brandon Staley’s coaching chair feeling as warm as it had ever been leading into a Week 3 matchup with the Minnesota Vikings. A matchup between two winless teams coming off disappointing playoff finishes to their strong 2022 regular seasons, where the loser could not afford to slip to 0-3. The Chargers were able to escape Minnesota with a 28-24 win that included the usual hijinks and madness of any Chargers or Vikings game. Despite the win on Sunday, the shortcomings of Staley as a coach were once again exposed for all to see.
When Staley was brought in to replace Anthony Lynn in 2020 he was tasked with leading this Chargers team, equipped with a young star QB in Justin Herbert to postseason success. The main selling point of his hire was the promise of two things: 1) An improved defense and 2) A modern and forward thinking process in regards to analytics. The first part has been an abject disaster, the Chargers defense has ranked 25th in EPA/P (Expected Points Added per Play) and 25th in Success Rate since 2021 and been particularly bad on the ground ranking 30th in EPA/P vs Run and 32nd in Success Rate. 2023 hasn’t been any better through 3 weeks with the Chargers ranking 28th in both EPA/P and Success Rate, quite a poor showing for a team that ranks #1 in cap spending on the defensive side of the ball with 49% of their cap space allocated to the defense. This past Sunday was more of the same, the Chargers defense let up 475 total yards, 130 of which, came on the ground to a team that had less than 70 total rushing yards in the first two weeks combined! They showed poor discipline, granting Minnesota 7 first downs via penalty, and continued their struggles in key game situations, like the clip below allowing a streaking KJ Osborn to take a 4th down pass to the endzone for a 4th quarter lead, it what was overall a negative performance.
If they hadn’t forced three turnovers (1 Forced Fumble, 1 INT, 1 Downs), something that Staley defenses have not consistently done in his tenure (have ranked outside the Top-10 in turnovers each year since ‘21), they would have given up far more than 24 points.
The other aspect Staley supposedly brough was an aggressive and analytically forward mindset, something that started off great in 2021, but over the years as he was exposed to public criticism has become inconsistent and oddly reserved. In the Chargers Week 2 loss to the Tennessee Titans a curious punt decision with 2:44 left in the 4th Quarter cost the Chargers almost 1.4% win probability in a game that they eventually lost in overtime after the Titans drove down and scored a touchdown off the punt.
On Sunday it appeared he had learned from his mistakes making the correct 4th down decision when he chose to go for it on 4th and 1 from his own 24 in an attempt to seal the game.
The problem in Week 3 was not the decision to go for it but the play call on that 4th down. With the game on the line instead of using his 6’ 6” 240 lbs QB on a sneak play, a play that has been so effective league wide that recently there are calls to ban it, he ran a *checks notes* FB Dive to backup RB Joshua Kelly?
Now Staley does not call offensive plays, that's on OC Kellen Moore, if you want to blame him in this particular instance fine by me, but when you are a coach with incredibly thin job security mistakes like this cannot keep happening in close games.
Now this has all been quite negative for a game that the Chargers won, so how did they win? Well it’s because they have a laser throwing cyborg in QB Justin Herbert who once again put the team on his back to play hero ball and keep Staley’s employment status on life support for now. Against a Vikings defense, who albeit is in a bit of a transition year and the Purple People Eaters of yeas past, Herbert was 40/47 for 405 yards and 3 TDs. His EPA/P and Completion Percentage Above Expected metrics were both exceptional.
All while facing a blitz rate of 80%+ and having zero help from the run game. The Chargers RBs averaged 2.3 YPC for a total of 30 yards. Their offense had a success rate of 57% when passing compared to 27% when running, which is not a balanced or sustainable way to run an offense, and certainly is not a winning recipe.
Typically when a QB faces a high blitz rate they get the ball out fast and in the shorter to intermediate areas of the field. Throws like this TD pass in the first half show Herbert used his quick processing and elite arm talent to beat Minnesota’s blitzes.
Herbert did both of those things with a 2.24 Time to Throw and 6.8 Average Depth of Target but he was far from a dink and dunk QB Sunday. He was charted with 3 Big Time Throws by PFF and that might be an selling him short. Herbert had multiple throws like the one below to Josh Palmer where he was able to stare down an oncoming free rusher and still deliver a strike down the field.
When the Vikings pass rush did get home and he was unable to get the ball out in time it still didn’t affect him. At 6’6” 240 Herbert is a load to bring down in the pocket and still has the requisite athleticism to break the pocket and find an open WR out of structure.
Playing hero ball to win ball games is nothing new for Herbert, it’s something he has been tasked with ever since he stepped into this league.
https://twitter.com/mibpj2/status/1703831278355968285
Playing for a team that consistently has poor performances in literally every other aspect of the game he has been forced time and time again to carry this team to wins and gets a large amount of the blame when he is not perfect or near perfect. On Sunday he was once again close to perfect and the Chargers escaped with a win despite their shortcomings elsewhere. With a player like Herbert to bail out this front office and coaching staff's poor decisions it has extended their period of employment but continued losses and mediocre results will eventually force ownerships hands to not waste the special talent they have at signal caller.