NFL Midseason Awards
The 2023 NFL season is half over (well almost, 8 out of 17 is close enough), so it’s time to hand out some Midseason Honors. I narrowed it down to three candidates for each award, there are a ton of good options for most of these awards but three was the arbitrary cut off I chose. Before heading into my midway point awards let’s take a quick look at my preseason predictions.
*All Odds via Fan Duel as of 11/2
^All Stats as of 11/2
Most Valuable Player
Candidates
QB Patrick Mahomes (+270)*
The reigning MVP once again finds himself amongst the favorites for the MVP as his Kansas City Chiefs sit at 6-2, tied for the top seed in the AFC. Mahomes ranks inside the Top-3 in Total EPA^ and EPA/P among QBs. He also finds himself in the Top-5 in terms of Passing Yards and Passing TDs as the Chiefs offense once again ranks as one of the top passing units in the NFL. Where Mahomes has really made his impact this year is with his legs. His 10 sacks taken rank as the 4th lowest mark in the league, but his Pressure of Sack ratio of 8.5% is even better at first. He also ranks only 2nd behind Lamar Jackson with runs of 10+ yards (11) and is 4th among QBs in Total Rushing Yards. For a Chiefs team that ranks 25th in rushing efficiency and 31st in rushing Success Rate, Mahomes ability to extend plays and move the sticks with his legs have been a massive boost.
QB Lamar Jackson (+600)
When Lamar Jackson won the MVP back in 2019, he was one of the most electric runners the NFL had ever seen. Fast forward to 2023 and he is still a MVP candidate but this time it’s because of the work he does as a pocket passer. Don’t get me wrong he’s still an exceptional runner, his 369 rushing yards and 5 rushing TDs rank first and second respectively among QBs, and he is tied for 1st in all of the NFL with rushes of 10+ yards with 16. What makes Jackson so special this year is his performance as a passer, something he has always been amazing at but has leveled up even more in his first season under OC Todd Moken. His overall numbers don’t jump off the page, ranking 14th in yards and 9th in TDs, but when you dig a little deeper than counting stats you will see he is one of the most explosive passers in the NFL. His 7.8 YPA ranks 3rd in the NFL and his 14 BTT (Big Time Throws) rank 6th. When you fold his passing excellence with his rushing ability, which remains unparalleled, it should be no shock the Ravens are 6-2 and Jackson is an MVP candidate.
QB Josh Allen (+1000)
Josh Allen might have the most well rounded and impressive statistical resume of any of the candidates. He ranks inside the Top-5 for Passing Yards, YPA, Passing TDs, Pressures to Sack Ratio, 1st Downs, Passer Rating, Rushing TDs, Total EPA, EPA/P, Passing EPA and Rushing EPA. With many of those categories ranking 1st or 2nd! Oh and just for good measure he has the 6th most BTT and 6th lowest TWP% (Turnover Worthy Play %) of any quarterback. Allen is more than just a stat machine; yards and EPA/P are great but they don’t always paint the big picture, good thing the tape backs it up. Allen is asked to do more than just about any other QB in the league. The Bills have an average offensive line, a functional stable of RBs and outside of Stefon Diggs a lack of playmakers on the perimeter. So naturally they love to spread it out and let the ball fly, because, well, they have Josh Allen. Allen combines supernatural tools with fantastic instincts to be the focal point of one of the best offenses in football despite only slightly above average playmakers. I mean just look at this, he does it this multiple times a week.
Winner: Josh Allen
When I came into this exercise I assumed my MVP would be Lamar Jackson, but after digging into it further it was impossible not to make it Allen. Allen ranks inside the Top-5 in virtually every single category among QBs with both his arm and legs. He also shoulders one of the biggest loads of any QB in the league. The Bill’s Week 8 win over the Buccaneers was a perfect microcosm of how much is simply on Josh Allen’s. Few players play hero ball to the extent he does and despite the burden he carries the Bills are one of the three upper echelon offenses in the NFL, and are the only one of those teams without an Offensive Player of the Year candidate to help out their QB.
Offensive Player of the Year
Candidates
RB Christian McCaffery (+140)
When the 49ers traded for McCaffery in 2022 they envisioned a dual threat weapon who changed how defenses played them, through 8 games of the 2023 season that is exactly what he has been. He ranks 1st and 2nd in basically every RB stat both on the ground and through the air and his 17 straight games with a TD are an NFL record. McCaffery is also one of the most explosive players in football, his 16 runs of 10+ yards are tied with Lamar Jackson and his 264 Yards After The Catch rank 10th in the entire NFL, a ridiculous feat for a RB. The biggest impact McCaffery makes for the 49ers doesn’t even show up in the scoresheet but in the way defenses are forced to defend the 49ers. He changes the calculus of a game plan so drastically that when he is on the field that you can feel his gravity watching from your couch at home.
WR Tyreek Hill (+160)
Tyreek Hill is the single most explosive and dynamic player in the NFL. Period. The Dolphins offense is one of the most explosive and dynamic in the NFL largely because of him. Hill ranks first in REC, YDS, YAC, Y/RR, 1st Downs and Total EPA among WRs. His world class speed makes him not just one of the best WRs in football in his hands but also one of the best decoys in football. The impact he has on a coverage unit creates so much open space for the rest of the offense to work. Hill's ability with and without the ball is one of the scariest weapons in the entire NFL.
WR AJ Brown (+750)
There is only one WR who is remotely close to Tyreek Hill in terms of Expected Points Added and that is AJ Brown. Brown and Hill's total of 60.7 is 15.8 points higher than 3rd place Ceedee Lamb (that’s higher than the gap between Lamb and 11th place Stefon Diggs!) Brown can’t match up to Hill in terms of explosives and efficiency, really no one can, but he makes his impact in different ways. He is one of the most physically imposing playmakers in all of football.
His 13 MTF ranks 2nd among all WRs and his 11 Contested Catches are tied for 1st. Despite making his money in a far different way than his AFC counterpart, Brown is one of the most dangerous weapons in all of football and a big reason his Eagles are the top overall seed in the NFC.
Winner: Tyreek Hill
As great of seasons as CMC and AJ Brown are having, no one truly holds a candle to Tyreek Hill in terms of statistical production or on-field impact. His 1,028 all-purpose yards are by far and away the best in the NFL and he is the only player through 8 games to crack the 1,000 yard mark. His game breaking speed and playmaking have made the Miami Dolphins offense a Top-2 unit in virtually every metric through the first half of the season.
Defensive Player of the Year
Candidates
EDGE Myles Garrett (+200)
The Cleveland Browns are a Top-2 defense by about every metric and Myles Garrett is their best player. He is playing with the most confidence in his career and it’s showing, the dude is literally practicing his cross-overs en route to wrecking the QB.
Garrett has been one of the best pass rushers in all of football for years now and 2023 is no different. Through 7 games (Browns had an early bye), he is 2nd in sacks with 9 and has the best win rate in football at 26.3%, all while facing one of the highest double team rates in football at 28%. Garrett isn’t just a pass rush merchant, he also shines as one of the best run defenders in football, which isn’t shocking given he is 6'4" 271 pounds. His 20 Run Stops are 7th among defensive lineman and his Run Stop Win Rate ranks 2nd. Garrett is truly a complete defensive threat and the lynchpin of the best defense in football.
EDGE TJ Watt (+250)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are somehow 5-3 on the season despite being out-gained in every game. A large reason for this success is due to their defense holding them in games, a defense led by TJ Watt. Watt is one of the most dynamic players on the defensive side of the ball in football, his ability to make impactful splash plays is second to none. Despite only playing 7 games he is 2nd in the NFL in sacks with 9, has 7 TFLs, 2 Forced Fumbles, 6 PBUs and even one Pick-6! The 2021 DPOY remains one of the most productive and impactful defenders in football and is the backbone of a Top-10 defense.
IDL Dexter Lawrence (+10000)
A nose tackle for DPOY? You’re damn right, Sexy Dexy isn’t just any old nose tackle either. Lawrence is one of the best overall defensive tackles in all of football. Don’t believe me? Look where he falls on this graph charting Pressures vs Pass Rush Snaps, right next to Aaron Donald who’s pretty darn good himself.
Lawrence is off to one of the best pass rushing seasons for any pure Nose Tackle ever. His 44 pressures rank 3rd in the entire NFL and his pass rush win rate of 22.5% ranks 7th among all defensive lineman. When combined with his stellar run defense, he has 18 Run Stops despite being doubled on 67% of his snaps, Lawrence is one of the most impactful players on a defense with not much else around him.
Winner: Myles Garrett
For as good as TJ Watt and Dexter Lawrence have been, Garrett is running away with this award. Not only is he the best player on the best defense in football, he is extremely impactful in all areas of the field. Garrett ranks in the top of the league for most volume stats, efficiency stats or advanced metrics like On/Off rate due to his impact as both a pass rusher and run defender. The tape backs it up the stats too. Don’t believe me? Go turn on the Colts/Browns game from Week 7, that should tell you all you need to know.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Candidates
QB CJ Stroud (-140)
The Offensive Rookie of the Year is often given to the best rookie QB. Stroud, the #2 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, has been that and more. He ranks not just as the best rookie QB but one of the better QBs in the entire NFL through 8 weeks. His 1,800 yards are 12th in the league (1st among Rookies), his 7.6 YPA mark is the 4th highest and he sports the 7th lowest Turnover Worthy Play Rate. He also leads all rookies in TDs, Big Time Throws, and First Downs. The numbers are impressive alone but given the revolving door on the Texans offensive line and a less than impressive supporting cast (outside of Nico Collins), for a rookie to have a first half like he has is truly special. On tape Stroud is calm, composed and has the arm talent to rip the ball like this…
WR Puka Nacua (+400)
Puka Nacua is one of the best early season stories in the NFL. The 177th pick in the draft has emerged as not just one of the top rookie WRs, but overall WRs in the NFL. He ranks 3rd in yards, 2nd in catches, 4th in YAC, 4th in 1sts and 8th in Y/RR, those ranks are not among rookies but in the entire league. Nacua took advantage of the absence of Cooper Kupp to establish himself as an early favorite of veteran QB Matthew Stafford. Many expected the return of Kupp to cut into his workload in recent weeks but it hasn’t eaten into his target share at all but actually increased it as he settles into the Robert Woods role of one of the best 1-2 punches in football.
WR Jordan Addison (+1400)
When the Vikings took Addison in the first round they likely envisioned him sliding into the WR2 role opposite Justin Jefferson for years to come. While that hasn’t exactly been the case so far in 2023 due to an injury to Jefferson that has held him out multiple weeks, Addison has been nothing short of spectacular. The rookie WR ranks 2nd in the NFL in TD catches with 7 and is 2nd in the class in receiving yards only behind Puka Nacua. Addison in his 3 weeks as the Vikings WR1 has averaged 6 catches on 7 TGTs for 78 yards and 1.3 TDs per game! Despite his smaller frame he has made 5 Contested Catches on the year, which ranks 2nd in the class, including this massive deep TD in their upset win over the 49ers on Monday Night Football.
Winner: Puka Nacua
CJ Stroud is the odds on favorite to win the year long award, that's not surprising, he plays a more valuable position and the decline of the Rams raises questions about the long term projection for Nacua’s stats. At the halfway point though it has to be Nacua. He is not only a candidate for the OROY but would deserve consideration for the Offensive Player of the Year if the season ended today, as he is off the one of the best starts for a rookie WR in NFL history.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Candidates
IDL Jalen Carter (-115)
Jalen Carter was considered by many draft pundits to be the best player in the 2023 NFL Draft and his first 7 games have done nothing to dissuade that notion. Carter ranks inside the Top-25 in terms of Pressures (2nd among Rookies) and his 4 Sacks are the top mark for any rookie defender. Carter does play a limited amount of his snaps so his counting stats aren’t out of this world but his Pass Rush Win Rate of 21.1% is 9th in the ENTIRE league. Carter functions with a limited sample size but when he plays, on a per snap basis he is one of the most dynamic and disruptive defenders in football.
CB Devon Witherspoon (+130)
“Witherspoon is in the conversation for the top CB in the 2023 class due to his nasty demeanor and sticky man coverage ability which put him in a rare air in terms of CB prospects.” That was my pre-draft bio for Witherspoon and he has been all that and more through 6 games. Spoon, as he is affectionately known, ranks in the Top-5 among Rookies for every meaningful coverage statistic. That alone would make him a contender for NFL Rookie of the Year, but when you add in his splash plays, he ranks 1st or 2nd among rookies in Pressures, Sacks, INTs, and PBUs it makes him an elite playmaker for a massively improved Seahawks secondary. Did I also mention he can play in a variety of spots? Witherspoon has logged over 150 snaps in the slot and at outside corner already in 2023. The ability to play in a variety of roles allows him to weaponize his instincts and physicality to make plays like this.
EDGE Will Anderson (+1000)
The Texans already had their #2 overall picks make an appearance earlier in this article so why not make it a pair. Will Anderson was billed as a ready made prospect out of Alabama when Houston traded up to take him at #3 overall and he has lived up to the hype. Anderson ranks Top-3 in the rookie class in terms of Pressures, QB Hits and Win Rate. The sacks have yet to really come but the underlying metrics have him as one of the best rookie rushers in the league. Anderson is also an exceptional run defender, his 15 Run Stops rank 36th in the league for defensive lineman and his Run Snap Win Rate of 38% ranks 3rd.
Winner: Devon Witherspoon
With all due respect to Will Anderson (and Christian Gonzalez who would be on here if not for a season ending shoulder injury) this is a two horse race at this point. Jalen Carter is the better and more dynamic per snap player but lack of snaps hurt his case. Carter has played less than 40% of the Eagles snaps and only taken 36 total snaps versus the run. Witherspoon on the other hand ranks 4th among rookies in snaps with 416 despite only playing 6 games due to an injury. In a race as close as this between two talented rookie playmakers the edge in availability gives it to the DB from the Pacific Northwest.
Coach of the Year
Candidates
HC Dan Campbell (+250)
Dan Campbell and his Detroit Lions are one of the best stories of the 2023 season so far. A long time NFC cellar dweller has risen to a 6-2 record as one of the best teams in the league. The Lions are extremely balanced on both sides of the ball, ranking in the Top-7 in terms of DVOA offensive and defensively. Through 8 games they are projected to beat their preseason win total by half a game and have a legit shot at the #1 seed.
HC Mike McDaniel (+300)
Coach McDaniel is the youthful mastermind behind one of the most explosive and dynamic offenses in football. The Dolphins rank 1st or 2nd in about every metric on his side of the ball as they sit at 6-2. There season long pace of 11.7 wins has them projected to beat their preseason total and finish with the #3 overall seed in the AFC
HC John Harbaugh (+1600)
The Ravens entered the year with championship hopes but playing in the hardest division in football. At the halfway point of the season they sit at 6-2 with a projected win total of 11.8, only behind the Chiefs in the AFC, and a full win over their preseason projection. They rank 1st in Team DVOA bolstered by their top ranked defense and fantastic DC Mike McDonald. Their 4th ranked offense is led by new OC Todd Moken and MVP candidate Lamar Jackson.
Winner: John Harbaugh
McDaniel’s and Campbell are all the rage in the NFL due to their quirkiness and outgoing media personalities. The high flying Dolphins and hard nosed Lions are two of the most beloved teams in the sport. But the best coaching performance at the halfway point?That's Harbaugh and the Ravens. Despite numerous injuries on both sides of the ball they remain one of the most balanced and successful teams in the league. Yes Lamar is an MVP candidate, and McDonald would be up for Assistant Coach of the Year if there was one but it's all happening under the eye of Harbaugh. Harbaugh brought in Todd Moken, he’s the one who has allowed Lamar to flourish and he’s done a great job keeping his team together and epitomizing the next man up mentality to stay successful through a litany of injuries.