Projecting The NFL's Top Offensive & Defensive Units in 2023
Who will be the 10 best units on offense in 2023? What about defense? Predicting year to year success is difficult especially on defense, but lets give it a shot.
Evaluating offensive and defensive proficiency is a difficult task, projecting it into the next year is even harder, especially on the defensive side of the ball. There is no one size fits all metric to perfectly encapsulate how a unit performs in a given year and there certainly isn’t a good one to project into the next. For this exercise I chose to focus on 4 metrics that all have their own faults, but together paint a relatively fair picture. PPG or Points per Game is the most traditional, it simply records how many points an offense scores or defense lets up in a given game. EPA/P or Expected Points Added, measures the value of an individual play in terms of points it adds. Success Rate measures how often a given play is “successful” given the result of the play compared to the down and distance. DVOA or Defense-Adjusted Over Average, calculates a teams success rate and then compares it to league average. All these metrics have their flaws, the traditional PPG fails to include context and nuance, where as the advanced statistics fall victim to variance in small samples size (17 games is not a big sample size, especially when projecting forward), but when used in conjunction we are left with a fairly accurate understanding of the ability and competency of a unit.
Offensive Rankings
1. Kansas City Chiefs
2022 Rankings
PPG: 29.2 (1st)
EPA/P: 0.179 (1st)
Success Rate: 50.7% (1st)
DVOA: 25.24% (1st)
Reasons for Optimism
As long as Patrick Mahomes is the Quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs there is not only optimism but an expectation that they ranked among the elite offensive units in all of football. Since 2018, when Mahomes became the full time starter the Chiefs offense has been #1 in EPA/P and Success Rate. When you add in HOF HC Andy Reid, HOF TE Travis Kelce and a Top-5 OL unit there are very few reasons not to expect the Chiefs to repeat as the top offensive team in all of football barring an injury to their top signal caller.
Reasons for Concern
For all that the Chiefs do well on offense, and there is a lot of it, the WR room is a big question mark. It was far from the best unit last year and it didn’t matter but losses of veterans Juju Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman will vacate around 1,00 total snaps, putting a lot of pressure on younger players to step up. 2022 2nd Round Pick Skyy Moore is expected to take on a larger role this year, he will be supported by 2023 2nd Round Pick Rashee Rice and talented but injury prone WR Kadarius Toney. The odds of the Chiefs offense fizzling out due to poor WR play is very low given the stability they enjoy at other positions but if the young WRs cannot provide the same competent support veterans have in previous years the offense will likely not reach the heights it has had in previous years.
2. Buffalo Bills
2022 Rankings
PPG: 28.4 (2nd)
EPA/P: 0.111 (2nd)
Success Rate: 49% (2nd)
DVOA: 19.05% (2nd)
Reasons for Optimism
For the first 8 weeks of the 2022 season the Buffalo Bills offense was at or near the top of all statistical categories. Behind MVP candidate Josh Allen they were the #1 team in terms of Success Rate and 2nd in EPA/P, but were unable to sustain the same level of success after Allen suffered a UCL injury in Week 9, with their EPA/P dropping to 7th and Success Rate to 3rd. Allen enters 2023 with a clean bill of health and some new weapons in the form of 2023 1st Round Pick Dalton Kincaid and veteran RB Damien Harris, two additions that should not only ease Allen’s superhuman workload but also allow the offense to be more versatile schematically and personnel wise.
Reasons for Concern
For all the new additions the Bills made to their skill group their offensive line, which was a relative weakness considering their status as a top offense in 2022 added very little. 2023 2nd Round Pick OG O’Cyrus Torrence presents a potential upgrade at RG but remains a big if and RT Spencer Brown who was an unmitigated disaster last year, after being solid in the year prior, remains a starter. The Bills plan in 2022 is to be more diverse and flexile as an offense but if the offensive line remains average, the run game will continue to be inefficient and Josh Allen will have to resort to playing hero ball again, which is not ideal for season long and future playoff success.
3. Cincinnati Bengals
2022 Rankings
PPG: 26.1 (6th)
EPA/P: 0.081 (3rd)
Success Rate: 47.8% (4th)
DVOA: 14.17% (4th)
Reasons for Optimism
The Bengals offense led by superstar QB Joe Burrow was one of the best in all of football in 2022. After a tough first five weeks of the season, which saw Cincinnati with a 2-3 record, the coaching staff opened up the offense and gave Burrow more control. Their faith in their star paid off, as only Kansas City performed better in terms of EPA/P and Success Rate after Week 6. With the addition of LT Orlando Brown in Free Agency, a player who’s skill set pairs well with Burrows quick release, a #1 overall finish is well within reach.
Reasons for Concern
Despite the addition of Brown to the offensive line it still is considered average at best. Concerns at LG and RT raise questions about how successful this offense can be if they lose any of their playmakers. The Bengals have been able to over come their offensive line issues in the past due to the excellence of Burrow and a talented WR trio of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. However, Chase was the only significant contributor in the skill position room who missed more than 2 games last year, if any of the three WR or RB Joe Mixon were to miss an extended period of the time the outlook for this offense shifts closer to be being ranked outside the Top-5.
4. Philadelphia Eagles
2022 Rankings
PPG: 28.1 (3rd)
EPA/P: 0.100 (3rd)
Success Rate: 47.9% (3rd)
DVOA: 15.02% (3rd)
Reasons for Optimism
The Eagles likely feel good about their offense heading into 2023 due to the sheer amount of talent they possess. A Top 10 QB, multiple Top 15 WRs, a Top 5 TE and arguably the best offensive line unit in football would make any team confident. The emergence of Jalen Hurts as one of the best dual threat QBs in the league created a juggernaut in 2022 and there is no reason to expect them to slow down in 2023. There is likely more meat still left on the bone as Hurts still has room to grow as a passer, especially over the middle of the field. Given Hurts ability to run the ball and push the ball vertically if he can also unlock the area of the field between the hashes this Eagles offense has the chance to find a new ceiling in 2023.
Reasons for Concern
For as good as the Eagles were last year the benefited from the luxury of being extremely healthy. Outside of TE Dallas Goedert the entire starting unit played 15+ games last year, something that likely will not be the case again in 2023. For a team that largely won by out “talenting” their opponents in 2022 if they lose some of their elite play makers on the outside the machine will likely not run as smoothly. With the departure of OC Shane Steichen, who is now the HC in Indianapolis, there will be more pressure than ever on Hurts and new OC Brian Johnson if they cannot lean on the talent of their star players as heavily.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars
2022 Rankings
PPG: 23.8 (10th)
EPA/P: 0.045 (8th)
Success Rate: 46.6% (5th)
DVOA: 7.72% (9th)
Reasons for Optimism
The Jaguars were one of the hottest passing attacks in football during the 2nd half of the 2022 season, largely due to the emergence of star QB Trevor Lawrence. Jacksonville was Top 5 in Dropback EPA and Success Rate from Weeks 9-18 and are set to drop in a legit WR1 in Calvin Ridley, in doing so will allow the rest of the pass catchers to slide into more appropriate roles. The run game also projects to be better with the addition of 2023 3rd Round Pick Tank Bigsby who complements starter Travis Etienne, now over a full year removed from a Lisfranc injury, really well, and the offensive line should improve once Cam Robinson is back due to the addition of Anton Harrison at RT.
Reasons for Concern
While there is a lot of excitement surrounding the Jaguars offense in 2022 they are relying a lot on contributions from players who have not haven’t really had consistent NFL success in recent year. For all the excitement surrounding Ridley, he hasn’t played an NFL game since 2021, RT Anton Harrison is a rookie and Walker Little, the projected LG when Cam Robinson is back has never played OG in his pro career. There is a lot of talent on this Jaguars offense but when a large reason for your expected growth is new players in new places, it must always be acknowledged that it’s not always that easy to get everything to click right away.
6. San Francisco 49ers
2022 Rankings
PPG: 26.5 (6th)
EPA/P: 0.084 (4th)
Success Rate: 46.2% (7th)
DVOA: 13.17% (6th)
Reasons for Optimism
HC Kyle Shanahan is widely recognized as one of the elite play callers in all of football, when combined with the tremendous amount of skill position talent the 49ers have they are again expected to be one of the best in the league. San Francisco has only finished outside the Top 10 offensively (per EPA/P) once since 2019 under Kyle Shanahan and that was during the injury riddled season of 2020. The biggest argument for this offense to have Top-5 upside centers around RB Christian McCaffery, when he was added to the team half way through the season last year, only the Chiefs had a better EPA/P than the 49ers. A combination of elite weapons and scheme give San Francisco a legit shot at the #1 offense in 2023, assuming the QB play is competent.
Reasons for Concern
For all the amazing things the 49ers do on offense they have big questions marks at two very important positions, RT and QB. 2022 starter at RT Mike McGlinchey departed in Free Agency, leaving 4th year pro Colton McKivitz to take his spot, a player with only 23 career snaps at the position. The projected starter at QB is 2nd year player Brock Purdy, the 2022 NFL Draft’s Mr. Irrelevant, who did not lose a game that he played all the way through in 2022 and put up strong numbers for a 7th round rookie. However, Purdy is returning from off-season UCL surgery that has had him on a pitch clock in camp, in addition to the fact that his success came in a small sample size there is reasonable concern if his 2022 success is repeatable. With the departure of former 1st Round Pick Trey Lance the offense is firmly in Purdy’s hands and Top-5 finish likely rests on squarely his shoulders.
7. Atlanta Falcons
2022 Rankings
PPG: 21.5 (15th)
EPA/P: 0.002 (19th)
Success Rate: 45.4% (11th)
DVOA: 5.82% (13th)
Reasons for Optimism
The Atlanta Falcons had one of the best rushing offenses in the entire NFL last year ranking Top 5 in Total Yards, EPA/P and Success Rate, and now they get to drop an elite RB prospect in Bijan Robinson into that system. HC Arthur Smith has a history of creating a top offense using a run game at it’s focal point, from 2019-2020 his Titans offense ranked 4th in EPA/P and 2nd in Success Rate in an offense that featured star RB Derrick Henry. If the rushing attack can continue to stay in 2022 form or better, with the playmakers the Falcons have on the outside in Kyle Pitts and Drake London, just competent QB play should have this unit sniffing Top 5 by the end of the year.
Reasons for Concern
The biggest question for the Atlanta Falcon’s offense is the QB position without a doubt. Last years starter Marcus Mariota was one of the worst in the league ranking 24th in Adjusted EPA/P and 35th in CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected). The reigns have now been officially handed to 2nd year QB Desmond Ridder who many around the team and in the media expect to take a step forward in 2023. The Falcons don’t need Ridder to be a star for this offense to be elite, HC Arthur Smith has a history of taking average QB play and turning it into top offensive production (QB Ryan Tannehill was T-1 w/ Patrick Mahomes in ADJ EPA/P from 2019-2020). Atlanta has all the pieces personnel and scheme wise to be a top offense in the NFL, it will just all come down to the QB play.
8. Detroit Lions
2022 Rankings
PPG: 26.6 (5th)
EPA/P: 0.073 (6th)
Success Rate: 45.8% (9th)
DVOA: 13.24% (5th)
Reasons for Optimism
The Lions have the privilege to employ one of the best OC in football in Ben Johnson for the 2nd straight year. In a scheme that maximizes the talent of its players they will have an extremely high floor due to play calling that consistently puts players in advantageous positions. Johnson does a fantastic job of weaponizing the run game behind a tremendous offensive line unit and a RB room that features a thunder and lighting pairing in F/A David Montgomery and rookie 1st Round Pick Jahmyr Gibbs. The passing game funnels through WR Amon-Ra St. Brown who is one of the most efficient 3rd down receivers in all of football. This Lions offense doesn’t feature any traditional “stars” but it is a well oiled machine that maximizes it’s talent.
Reasons for Concern
The biggest concern for the Lions and their offensive ceiling is their lack of top end talent at key spots. QB Jared Goff is a solid QB who has shown he can win games and produce when placed in a good system, but he operates as more of a floor raiser than a ceiling raiser. For as good as St. Brown is he does not provided explosive plays down the field and does not typically win on the outside. With the suspension of 2022 1st Round Pick Jameson Williams the Lions will be without a true difference maker on the outside for the first 1/3 of the season. Even when Williams returns the lack of depth and talent on the outside likely caps the ceiling of this Lions offense.
9. Seattle Seahawks
2022 Rankings
PPG: 23.9 (9th)
EPA/P: 0.013 (13th)
Success Rate: 44.8% (16th)
DVOA: 4.83% (14th)
Reasons for Optimism
The Seattle Seahawks and their offense were one of the best stories of 2022, vastly exceeding expectations due to a late resurgence from QB Geno Smith and quality contributions from rookie OTs Charles Cross and Abe Lucas as well as RB Kenneth Walker. With a majority of their key contributors on offense set to the return and projected growth from last year’s rookies this Seahawks offense is poised to improve on their success from last year. The additions 2023 rookies WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba and RB Zach Charbonnet bring a pair of new skill sets that should help improve on their weaknesses from last year in the Red Zone (27th in RZ Success Rate) and on 3rd Down (20th in 3rd Down Success Rate).
Reasons for Concern
For all the success Seattle had last year the reason it was unexpected was due to the fact they relied on a lot of players who hadn’t produced at that caliber before. Many, including myself, expect the 2022 rookie class to continue to grow and Geno to maintain his success from last year. However, it has to be acknowledged that there is a possibility that the rookies stall, as player growth is so rarely linear, and Geno regresses in 2023. The talent of veterans Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf on the outside combined with the friendly scheme OC Shane Waldron employs means barring injury this unit should rank in the top half of the league, but the jump into Top-10 and higher is going to rely on sustained success from players who don’t have a track record of it at the NFL level.
10. Los Angeles Chargers
2022 Rankings
PPG: 23.0 (13th)
EPA/P: 0.007 (16th)
Success Rate: 44.2% (18th)
DVOA: -1.90% (19th)
Reasons for Optimism
The Chargers can’t possibly be as injured as they were last year…right? On paper LA has all the pieces to be an elite offensive unit, a superstar QB in Justin Herbert, a talented stable of play makers and a good offensive line. The addition of new OC Kellen Moore projects to open up the offense more and better take advantage of Herbert’s tools and the skillsets of WR Mike Williams and Quentin Johnston. The return of All-Pro LT Rashawn Slater and 2022 1st Round Pick Zion Johnson sliding back to his proper position at LG should result in vast improvements along the OL as well. Assuming the Chargers key contributors stay healthy a Top-10 offense is well within reach.
Reasons for Concern
The problem with the Chargers staying healthy, is that they just don’t. Mike Williams and WR Keenan Allen have each only played one fully healthy season since 2019, Zion Johnson is the only projected starter on the OL who played over 15 games last year. Simply put they put a lot of stock in players who struggle to stay on the field and when they get hurt they have failed to provide alternative ways to win. The lack of a traditional running game to ease the burden on Herbert has also been a problem. As talented as RB Austin Eckler is he has never had a 25+ carry game in his career. The Chargers run game ranked outside the Top-15 in 2022, and their inability to control the game on the ground cost them a playoff win. The hope is Kellen Moore’s new scheme will help open up the playbook and ease some of the stress on Justin Herbert but if the injuries begin to stack up again, there is legit concern about LA’s ability to adjust and adapt.
Honorable Mentions: Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens
Defensive Rankings
1. Dallas Cowboys
2022 Rankings
PPG: 20.1 (5th)
EPA/P: -0.087 (2nd)
Success Rate: 41.4% (4th)
DVOA: -13.35% (2nd)
Reasons for Optimism
The Cowboys path to repeated defensive success largely lies in continuity carrying over from last year. One of the top defensive units from last year returns most of its starters that features a deep and versatile DB room and one of the best 1-2 EDGE rush punches in football with Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence. DC Dan Quinn, who is an excellent coach, also returns in 2023 after there were some rumors of him leaving for an HC gig during the offseason. Dallas main additions come in the form of former All-Pro DB Stephon Gilmore who’s skillset pairs well with star CB Trevon Diggs and rookie 1st Round Pick Mazi Smith should add size and run defense up the middle.
Reasons for Concern
The Cowboys defense had a large amount of injury luck in 2022, their three best players Parsons, Diggs and Lawrence all played a full 17 game schedule. If one or multiple of them were to be hurt their deficiencies at other positions, such as LB, would become more prominent. Dallas also is in line to see some turnover regression from last year, their 33 turnovers ranked 1st in all of football, a number that will be difficult to match in 2023.
2. New York Jets
2022 Rankings
PPG: 18.6 (4th)
EPA/P: -0.045 (6th)
Success Rate: 41.14% (3rd)
DVOA: -10.14% (5th)
Reasons for Optimism
The Jets defense captained by HC Robert Saleh was one of the best in football last year due to their elite three level talent. NY features one of the deepest and most talented EDGE groups in all of football as well as a strong secondary, featuring DROY CB Sauce Gardner and criminally underrated CB DJ Reed behind it. The Jets were extremely successful on the defensive side of the ball last year without the benefit of turnovers, their 16 TO ranked 28th in the NFL, a positive regression in that categories seems in order for 2023.
Reasons for Concern
The New York Jets defense was one of the healthiest units in all of football last year. They had 14 players play in 15+ games and 10 that played in all 17. The NFL is a long grueling season, to be able to have so many key contributors available and read to play week in and week out is a massive luxury. Injury luck is always very unstable year to year, the likelihood of the team being as healthy in 2023 is very low, which will require backups to step up to maintain their defensive dominance. The Jets have the required depth to weather some injuries but to maintain status as a top unit is not easy.
3. San Francisco 49ers
2022 Rankings
PPG: 16.3 (1st)
EPA/P: -0.112 (1st)
Success Rate: 40.9% (2nd)
DVOA: -14.14% (1st)
Reasons for Optimism
The 2022 49ers defense was the best in the league, led by DPOY EDGE Nick Bosa and All-Pro LB Fred Warner. With all but one starter projected to return in 2023 (NCB Jimmie Ward departed in F/A), San Francisco looks to be among the top units in football once again. The 49ers feature one of the best Front-7’s in all of football a unit that includes the aforementioned Bosa, All-Pro IDL Javon Hargrave, Arik Armstead, 2022 2nd Pick Drake Jackson and the latest Kris Kocurek reclamation project Clelin Ferrell. They project to once again be one of the fastest and most talented units in football under new DC Steve Wilks.
Reasons for Concern
Speaking of new DC Steve Wilks he has massive shoes to fill as 2022 DC Demeco Ryans departed this offseason for a HC role in Houston. A change in coaching is always a big question mark for a team heading into a new season, especially when the loss is a coaching as widely respected as Ryans. The 49ers also have questions when it comes to depth after losing almost 2,000 snaps in Free Agency this offseason. San Francisco made active moves to replace both their coaching staff and depth pieces with quality contributors but unknown quantities are always troubling, a potential backslide awaits if the new additions cannot step up to the plate and maintain the same level of success as their predecessors.
4. New England Patriots
2022 Rankings
PPG: 20.4 (11th)
EPA/P: -0.085 (3rd)
Success Rate: 41.8% (5th)
DVOA: -13.35% (3rd)
Reasons for Optimism
The 2023 New England Patriots are not the same team that dominated the early 2000’s but don’t tell their defense that. The Patriots feature one of the most uniquely versatile defensive rosters in all of football. When paired with a defensive mastermind in Bill Belichick it is no surprise to once again see them at the top of the defensive leaderboards. The strength of this team lies in it’s Front-4, lead by star pass rusher Matthew Judon. The unit is deep and versatile with a variety of body types and skill sets that allow them to match up with anyone.
Reasons for Concern
Outside of Judon the Patriots lack many true difference makers on the defensive side of the ball, their defense is a unit that succeeds largely, as sum of its parts. Against top teams no matter how good their scheme may be they can simply be out-talented at times, especially in the secondary. New England was also extremely lucky when it came to turnover in 2022, their 30 forced turnovers ranked only behind Dallas, if that number were to regress in 2023 they may struggle to keep such stellar underlying numbers.
5. Philadelphia Eagles
2022 Rankings
PPG: 20.2 (9th)
EPA/P: -0.063 (4th)
Success Rate: 43.4% (14th)
DVOA: -9.68% (6th)
Reasons for Optimism
The Eagles defense boasts one of the best pass rushes in football, they accumulated 70 sacks in 2022, 15 more than 2nd place and outside of Javon Hargrave (11 SK) return everyone in 2023. The new additions, first round rookies EDGE Nolan Smith and IDL Jalen Carter are tabbed to help replace Hargrave’s production on the defensive line. The Front-4 is complemented by one of the best CB duos in football with Darius Slay and James Bradberry on the back end. The talent, depth and ability to make splash play should once again have this Eagles defense up near the top of the league again.
Reasons for Concern
Despite all the talent they possess, Philadelphia is undergoing a significant amount of change in 2023, the departures of Hargrave, SAF C.J. Gardner-Johnson and LBs TJ Edwards and Kyzir White leave over 3,000 snaps to be replaced on this defense. They will also be working under a new DC Sean Desai due to 2022 DC Johnathan Gannon leaving for a HC job out west. A tremendous amount of change to go with expected regression in terms of sacks and turnovers (27 TO in 2022 was T-4), raise questions if the Eagles can continue their defensive dominance.
6. Buffalo Bills
2022 Rankings
PPG: 17.9 (2nd)
EPA/P: -0.045 (7th)
Success Rate: 44.1% (18th)
DVOA: -11.03% (4th)
Reasons for Optimism
The Bills defense was one of the deepest and most fundamentally sound units in football during 2022, ranking in the Top 10 by most metrics. Buffalo possesses an extremely intelligent and deep secondary to go with a solid stable of pass rushers that will only get better after the return of HOF pass rusher Von Miller. The Bills possess very good to elite players at all three levels of the defense with a history of sustained success, a feat very few teams can lay claim too. The Bills have ranked in the Top-5 defensively for the better part of five years, and there is no reason they shouldn’t challenge for it again this year.
Reasons for Concern
The Bills defense has been near the top of the league for about 5 years now but what means is their key contributors are starting to get older. Poyer, Hyde, Miller and Floyd are all over 30 years old and Milano and White are 29 and 28 respectively. Floyd is the only player on the list who has played a full healthy season each of the last three years, and star pass rusher Miller is already starting the year on the PUP. The Bills have a ton of talent but being able to keep their defensive leaders on the field for 17 games may prove to be a challenge. For a team that is trying to work in a new LB and has questions at CB2, the loss of their defensive rocks could prove to be detrimental.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers
2022 Rankings
PPG: 20.1 (10th)
EPA/P: 0.021 (23rd)
Success Rate: 43.0% (13th)
DVOA: -3.51% (12th)
Reasons for Optimism
The face value numbers from 2022 of the Steelers defense do not indicate a Top 10 unit but they were forced to play over half the season without former DPOY TJ Watt and had a secondary that needed to be completely rehauled. With Watt back in the fold for a fully healthy season and the addition of rookies Keeanu Benton and Nick Herbig to bolster their depth, the Steelers should boast one of the more talented lines in football. When you combine such a fearsome Front-4 with the best FS in the NFL in Minkah Fitzpatrick and a HOF defensive minded coach in Mike Tomlin it’s hard not to see Pittsburgh finishing Top-10 barring injury.
Reasons for Concern
The biggest concern for the performance of the Steelers defense is the lack of playmakers in the Back-7 outside of Fitzpatrick, particularly at LB and CB. The LB room features veterans Cole Holcomb and Elandon Roberts, while the CB room projects to start veterans Levi Wallace and Patrick Peterson. Rookie 2nd Round Pick Joey Porter Jr. another potential option at CB but asking first year DBs to play pivotal roles right away is not typically a recipe for success. Due to a the fact that Pittsburgh plays in a division with 3 teams that not only have fantastic QBs but strong WR rooms as well, 6 games against such teams with a Back-7 like theirs will likely limit their ceiling.
8. Cincinnati Bengals
2022 Rankings
PPG: 20.1 (6th)
EPA/P: -0.043 (8th)
Success Rate: 42.2% (7th)
DVOA: -4.45% (11th)
Reasons for Optimism
The Bengals defensive is one of the most fundamentally sound units in all of the NFL. Lead by outstanding DC Lou Anarumo and a strong Front-7 that is returning every starter from last year, they once again should be squarely in competition to rank in the back half of the Top-10 of defenses. While they lack traditional star players, their main contributors Trey Hendrickson, DJ Reader and Logan Wilson are some of the most consistent players and underrated players in the league. Cincy also projects to have some better turnover luck in 2023, their 24 TO ranked 11th in football last year yet they still ranked Top-10 in most defensive metrics.
Reasons for Concern
The biggest concern for the Bengals heading into 2023 that they are trotting out a brand new safety room. With the departures of starters Jessie Bates and Von Bell, the room is now manned by veteran F/A Nick Scoot, 2022 1st Round Pick Dax Hill and 2023 3rd Round Pick Jordan Battle. It’s an extremely talented room with a good variety of skillsets but few schemes ask a unit to do more than the Bengals do with their safeties. For a team that lacks elite difference makers on their defensive roster potential weak spots stand out a little more and raise questions about their ability to repeat recent years success.
9. Washington Commanders
2022 Rankings
PPG: 20.2 (7th)
EPA/P: -0.059 (5th)
Success Rate: 39.9% (1st)
DVOA: -5.27% (9th)
Reasons for Optimism
The strength of the Washington Commanders defense all starts with their defensive line. With the return of former top pick Chase Young, their Front-4 that also includes Jonathan Allen (‘17 1st), Daron Payne (‘18 1st), and Montez Sweat (‘19 1st) is littered with talent. Despite all the talent on their defensive line their 43 sacks only ranked 12th in the NFL, positive regression from a healthier unit along with better turnover luck (18 TO ranked 26th) this unit has the potential to be one of the best in 2022.
Reasons for Concern
So why do the Commanders rank all the way down at #9 if their DL is so good? Well the Back-7 is a lot sketchier than you would like from a top defense. 2021 1st Round Pick Jamin Davis has never lived up to his draft position at LB and his running mate Cody Barton is far from a difference maker, even if he is a competent starter. In the secondary SS Kam Curl is one of the more underrated players in the league but outside of veteran Kendall Fuller the rest of the secondary is a group of young and inexperienced players. The DL will be able to cover up a large amount of mistakes but to climb into the upper echelons of defensive rankings they will need some young players to get better quickly.
10. Tennessee Titans
2022 Rankings
PPG: 21.1 (15th)
EPA/P: -0.015 (22nd)
Success Rate: 42.7% (11th)
DVOA: 1.76% (19th)
Reasons for Optimism
Not a single team lost more snaps to injury than the Tennessee Titans defense did last year and it showed. The return of EDEGE Harold Landry and the additions of DL Arden Key and LB Azeez Al-Shaair in F/A give the Titans, on paper, one of the most physically imposing Front-7’s in all of football. This was already a defense that allowed the fewest rushing yards in football in 2022 and now they add 3 quality starters to that unit, any improvement on their 39 sacks (19th) and 20 turnovers (24th) could vault this unit even higher than the 10th spot.
Reasons for Concern
While the Titans were amazing against the run in 2022, that was in part because teams only chose to throw on them given the issues in their secondary. The starting unit that includes veterans Kevin Byard and Sean Murphy-Bunting to go with former Top-50 picks Kristian Fulton and Roger McCreary is relatively solid. However, behind them is where it gets scary. If any of their starters were to miss time they would be relying on former Top 100 Picks Caleb Farley and Elijah Molden, who never lived up to the hype, or a group of journeyman vets. Their Front-7 is fantastic but if injuries or declining play become a problem in the secondary again it might look a lot like last year, a unit that struggled to crack the top half of the league in any metric.
Honorable Mentions: Baltimore Ravens, New Orleans Saints, Denver Broncos
EPA/P and Success Rate Statistics & Images: https://rbsdm.com
DVOA Statistics: ftnfantasy.com
PPG and Snap Count Data: pff.com