Purdy & Aiyuk Shine in 27-14 49ers Win
400 yards on offense, a margin of victory of 13 and +2 in the turnover battle. Another complete win for a 49ers team finally getting back in the groove.
Two weeks removed from their bye week and two more notches in the win column. The 49ers have gotten back to their winning ways after a multi-game skid game in October due their return to playing complete team football. On Sunday San Francisco won by a 13 point margin, outgained their opponent by roughly 150 yards and won the turnover battle 2 to 0, a game script that is exactly what HC Kyle Shanahan wants.
Offense
For the second straight week the 49ers offense played a balanced brand of football that saw them push for 30 points. The offense had 420 total yards, 305 through the air and 115 on the ground, averaging 7.10 Yards per Play. The advanced stats reflected the same success with a positive EPA/P (0.22) and a team Success Rate of 53%. With another dominant offensive performance in the books the 49ers now rank as one of the best offenses since 1981 through 10 games, per DVOA.
The 49ers offense has always been an upper echelon unit when Kyle Shanahan has had a healthy and competent team, so what makes this one so special compared to its previous iterations? The growth and performance of two players, QB Brock Purdy and WR Brandon Aiyuk.
Purdy Good! (I’m sorry…)
Like the rest of the offense Purdy put up strong numbers for the second straight week. He went 21 for 25 for 333 YDS, 3 TDs and a perfect passer rating of 158.3, something that the media has been all over. Passer rating is a fairly flawed statistic given it’s tendency to over weight chunk plays when compared to number of attempts. For example this 76 yard bomb to Brandon Aiyuk, while a great play, weighs pretty heavily into the equation, and can skew the overall performance of a player.
However, the advanced analytics also shine a pretty favorable light on Brock’s Sunday performance, where he finished with a 0.59 EPA per Dropback and a passing Success Rate of 63%. He also had 3 Big Time Throws to 0 Turnover Worthy Plays, which is a nice bonus for a player who can force throws at times.
Purdy’s film was fantastic too, routinely layering balls over the 2nd level defenders to a variety of 49ers players on in breakers.
The one blemish on Purdy’s otherwise stellar performance was his sack avoidance. He finished the day with 4 sacks, 3 of which were probably on him for holding the ball too long or not identifying a free rusher. Finishing with a Pressure to Sack Rate of 25% is less than ideal. So while Purdy was not quite perfect like his passer rating would indicate, he still had an excellent day.
The 25 Million Dollar Man
The real star of the show was WR Brandon Aiyuk, who finished the day with 5 REC (on 6 TGT) for 156 yards and 1 score. The 76 yard TD from above was great but Aiyuk, like he has all year, makes his money on in-breakers. Just sit back and enjoy watching him dust Tampa Bay DB’s.
Aiyuk, who had his first 1,000 yard season in 2022, has upped that with a true breakout 2023 campaign. The 4th year WR is on pace for over 1,500 yards and is one of the most efficient players in all of football. His 3.38 Yard per Route Run rank 2nd in the NFL only behind OPOY front runner Tyreek Hill, a number that was only boosted by his 5.38 Y/RR on Sunday. His performance isn’t going unnoticed either, not in the media, where reporters of other teams circle like vultures anticipating a potential cap crunch in SF; and not in the locker room, as calls for a massive (well deserved) extension only continue to get louder with each passing week.
Defense
Just like the offense the 49er defense had a strong game for a second straight week. Under 300 yards allowed on almost 70 plays is making it pretty tough on the opposing offense. The Bucs were only able to gain 14 points and turned it over 4 times, one via fumble, one through the air and twice on downs. The reason the defense was so good? Pressure, pressure and more pressure.
Pressure Performs
Per PFF, the San Francisco defense collected an eye popping 38 total pressures on Sunday! As per usual the units star pass rusher Nick Bosa had a strong performance with 9 Pressures, 2 Sacks and a 24.4% Win Rate, but the best player on the defensive line Sunday was IDL Arik Armstead.
Armstead, on 40 pass rush snaps, had 12 Pressures, 1 Sack and a Win Rate of 31.6%. He was often lined up over the Tampa Bay rookie RG Cody Mauch, a former small school tackle who has really struggled with power so far in his career. Power is something Armstead has in droves, he used both his speed and power to make most of his reps on Sunday look like the one below.
Two straight weeks with big time pressure has made the lives of the 49er coverage unit far easier. Something that will be even more important going forward as the defensive back room has lost one of it’s leaders.
A New Face With A Big Role
In the 2nd half of the game Sunday 2022 All-Pro SS Talanoa Hufanga went down with a non-contact knee injury. The injury turned out to be an ACL tear, knocking the star safety out for the season. With Hufanga out for the year the 49ers must rely on 2023 3rd Round Pick Ji’Ayir Brown. Brown, a stand out at Penn State, was known for his football intelligence and versatility as a prospect. For a more in depth look at his profile check out my write up here.
In the wake of Hufanaga’s departure Brown was forced to play 36 snaps on Sunday and more than held his own. The rookie safety had 2 Tackles, 2 PBUs and 1 INT, with one of his pass breakups coming on a huge fourth down as the Bucs were trying to climb back into the game.
Building off the momentum of Sunday will be vital for Brown and this 49ers defense. The schedule does not get any easier and there is no other help coming in that door for a Super Bowl contender post-Trade Deadline. If Sunday is any indicate however, the young rookie is up to the task of filling Hufanaga’s big shoes.
What’s Next?
The 49ers now head up to Seattle to take on the Seahawks in the latest installment of a fierce divisional rivalry. Short week, on the road, in a hostile environment will be a huge test. Both teams are rocked with injuries, San Francisco is down the aforementioned Hufanga and both their starting OGs and Seattle will not have their starting RB and possibly even their QB. Thursday will be a huge game for not only the NFC West but the entire NFC playoff picture and should test the metal of two contenders.