Sloppy Road Performance Adds To 49ers Skid
Turnovers, penalties and more post game injuries. Week 7 looked and sounded a lot like Week 6, this time it's harder to chalk it up to chance or an off day as patterns are starting to form.
After the 49ers first loss of the year it was easy to excuse it away. Let down spot after a big game, poor weather, early start time and facing an elite level defense, all the excuses for a one off disappointment were there. Despite leaving with some substantial injuries and a sour taste in their mouth there was confidence a game versus the 2-4 Minnesota Vikings would be a big bounce back opportunity. Instead the 49ers leave their road trip 0-2 after a 22-17 loss, a loss that looked a lot like the week before. Once again it was a sloppy offensive showing marred by turnovers and a leaky defense that struggled to keep their hands to themselves and get off the field.
Offensive Shortcomings
For the second straight week the vaunted 49ers offense, which had started the year with five 30+ point outings, failed to crack the 20 point mark, with the second instance coming versus a middle of the pack Vikings defense which ranks 19th in EPA/P and 24th in Success Rate on the season. However, Week 7’s performance wasn’t quite as bad as the weeks prior despite the identical point total. The offense had over 300 yards, was 5/9 on third down and finished with a positive EPA/P (0.08). The inability to score points largely came from turnovers and another missed field goal. Between Christian McCaffery’s Red Zone fumble and Brock Purdy’s two 4th quarter interceptions San Francisco lost 10.75 Expected Points due to turnovers. Clean up some of those mistakes and the offensive output looks a whole lot different.
A lot of people will point to Purdy’s 4th Quarter and place the blame on his shoulders for Monday night. As the starting QB that kind of comes with the territory, but outside of the two picks, which obviously matter I’m not discounting that, he was more than fine. In fact, Purdy’s overall line looked about like it usually does, high completion percentage and a really good EPA/P (0.30). He had 3 Big Time Throws to 2 Turnover Worthy Plays, making a couple big throws to keep the 49ers in the game while trailing, unfortunately his errant throws fell into defenders hands this week (a regression he was probably due for).
The biggest reason for the 49ers offense not playing up to par in Week 7 was mostly the run game, if you want to find a reason outside of the injuries to starters Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams. Against a Minnesota run defense that ranks outside the Top 15 in the NFL they only managed 3.0 YPC on a 42% Success Rate, a pair of numbers that are far to low for an offense that relies on it’s run game to remain on schedule. The run game is also where the loss of Trent Williams was really felt, the 49ers only averaged 1.17 YPC to the left side on Monday night, less than half of their season long average of 3.9 YPC to that side. Too many early down run plays looked like the one below, where LT Jaylon Moore and LG Aaron Banks were unable to generate any displacement at all, resulting in a run for minimal gain.
Defensive Concerns
The bigger issue on Monday night was not the offense but performance of the defense. Facing a Vikings offense that was missing their top weapon in Justin Jefferson, it was expected the defense would be able to dominate, but the opposite happened. The Vikings racked up 451 total yards, scored 22 points and controlled the clock for 34:31 minutes of game time. It could have been even worse but the 49ers defense was able to bend not break forcing the Vikings to attempt four field goals in the game.
The biggest issue for the 49ers defense was just simply getting off the field on 3rd down. Their early down numbers were roughly on par with their full season averages, it was the later downs where they struggled.
The Vikings ended up finishing the game 8/13 on 3rd Down with another 3 granted via penalty. Credit goes to Minnesota, who’s coaching staff had a fantastic game plan set up, routinely using screens and misdirection to take advantage of 49ers aggressive Front-7. They also had multiple third down play calls that were perfectly set up to counteract the 49ers coverage. The clip below shows a great job by the Vikings offense utilizing short motion to mess with man coverage rules from a bunch set and get a wide open target for Cousins.
Monday Night was a performance that is simply not good enough for a championship defense, but given the 49ers relative success through the first half of the season their 3rd Down numbers should regress more positively towards the mean in weeks to come.
Another issues that has cropped up amongst 49ers faithful is the pass rush or lack there of. Through 7 weeks San Francisco, a team that spends over $40 million on their defensive line in 2023, has a 5.1% Sack Rate, which ranks 6th lowest in the NFL. On Monday Night the 49ers failed to sack Kirk Cousins a single time, raising the ire of fans and media members alike.
The 49ers 18 pressures on 45 dropbacks is a respectable number but was tied for their lowest total of the year along with their Week 4 performance against Arizona (18 Pressures on 47 Dropbacks).
While this is concerning at face value, there is a reason why the 49ers were unable to get to Kirk Cousins, the reason is Cousins gets paid to play football too, and he is pretty good at it.
Despite lackluster overall numbers the 49ers did get to Cousins on occasion, when that happened the veteran QB did an excellent job maneuvering muddy pockets and finding open receivers. Cousins and the Vikings also knew they could not hold up on extended drops and did a fantastic job of getting the ball out quickly. Cousins 2.45 seconds Time to Throw was his fastest mark of the year, his quick accurate underneath throws exposed a far more telling weakness in the 49ers defense.
Nickel Corner Concerns?
The 49ers underneath defenders struggled mightily to contain the Vikings playmakers on Monday Night. TJ Hockenson and the other pass catchers dominated over the middle, resulting in the 49ers LB tandem of Dre Greenlaw and Fred Warner having their worst coverage day in quite a while. The Greenlaw/Warner duo was targeted 16 times and allowed 15 catches for 145 yards. A big reason for the lack of success on 3rd Down and in pass rush, was the ease at which Minnesota was able to get its playmakers the ball out in space.
The 49ers linebackers are usually tremendous and have a large enough sample size to expect a bounce back performance in weeks ahead.
The one player who does not have a big enough body of work fall back on is NCB Isaiah Oliver. Oliver got off to a strong start to the year, routinely playing well as a zone coverage player and in run defense but his play has started to decline over the recent weeks. As the 49ers ramped up their blitz rate to generate pressure it has required more man coverage, and Oliver has begun to struggle. Over the past three weeks teams have averaged a passer rating of 116.4 when targeting Oliver in coverage. On Monday he allowed 4 catches on 4 targets, 2 of which went for first downs and another was added via penalty. It wasn’t just Hockenson and Jordan Addison either, late in the game Oliver gave up a massive third down conversion to WR Brandon Powell, a player who had 8 catches total on the year coming into the game.
Isaiah Oliver is a fine and useful player, his size and tackling ability make him a competent big nickel, but as the 49ers get deeper into the season they may need another option at that spot. With the trade deadline looming it’s worth monitoring whether San Francisco looks to add another CB who can play more consistent man coverage from the nickel spot to add to the rotation with Oliver.
Next Up…
Week 8 brings the Cincinnati Bengals to town, a team off to a slow start in 2023 but one that comes in on a 2 game win streak. The 49ers are banged up once again (QB Brock Purdy is unlikely to play in Week 8 with a concussion), and coming off two straight losses will have their mental toughness tested in their final game before the bye week.