Special Teams Mistakes Sink 49ers to 1-2
The L.A. Rams have long been a get right game for the 49ers, but Sunday was anything but that despite having an early lead and multiple chances to win it late.
For the 2nd straight week the San Francisco 49ers drop a game on the road they were favored in to start the season. This time it came in the form of a 27-24 loss at the hands of long time division rivals, the L.A. Rams. Despite multiple injuries on the offensive side of the ball the 49ers got out to a quick 14-point lead and controlled much of the game, before blowing a 10-point 4th quarter lead.
Despite the injuries, the 49ers offense looked much better after a tough showing in Minnesota in Week 2, putting up 24 points on 425 yards. Brock Purdy had his best game of the season with almost 300 yards passing and an uber-efficient 0.42 EPA/DB. The star of the show was Jauan Jennings, who’s 11 for 175 line with three scores was more than adequate in replacing the injured Deebo Samuel. While the offense wasn’t perfect - Brando Aiyuk had a tough drop early, RT Colton McKivitz cost them points before half on strip sack, and Brock Purdy, despite his stellar day, missed a wide open Aiyuk for a game sealing TD late - it was more than enough to win. The main culprits of Sunday loss were special teams and defense.
Special teams have long been a soft spot for Kyle Shanahan teams over the years, ranking inside the Top-15 of DVOA only once since 2020, and Sunday was no different. They allowed a fake punt in the first half that extended a touchdown drive, at a point where the game was quickly snowballing on the Rams. A missed FG in the late 4th quarter by former 3rd Round pick Jake Moody could have sealed the game. And the final nail in the coffin, was a 50 yard punt return with 50 seconds left to get the Rams into field goal range. Typically the 49ers have over come special teams errors by dominating on both sides of the ball, but against the Rams one unit struggled to hold up its end of the bargaining.
The 49ers defense with a lot of new faces and a new play caller has struggled to get its footing early in 2024, ranking outside the Top-20 in most metrics. It has largely played a bend but don’t break style, that relies on splash plays to get them off the field. On Sunday there was a lot of bending but no splash plays.
The two main issues on Sunday, and for most of the year for that matter, have been run defense and third downs. Opposing teams are converting 52.9% of their third downs (30th in the NFL) and the run defense ranks in the bottom third of the league in both EPA/P and Success Rate.
A big reason the 49ers have been getting shredded on third downs is their ability to cover in man to man, specifically against bunches. Both the Rams and Vikings frequently used motion to get to bunches when the 49ers showed Cover-1 and used the natural traffic to create space. Typically teams “Banjo” these routes, where defenders guarding the bunch take the first WR in each direction (as shown below) but the 49ers defense generally just follow their original man, a choice that has not proven effective.
For two straight weeks it has allowed opposing offenses to get free releases on crossers and out breakers vs soft coverage on money downs. The Rams converted three separate third downs by using the same strategy.
The good thing for the 49ers, is schematically passing off bunches is a very fixable mistake. Their other issue in man coverage, is more difficult to remedy because it boils down to personnel.
Two new additions to the 49ers defense this year, Isaac Yiadom and De’Vondre Campbell, have struggled so far in coverage to start the season, particularly in man. Campbell has given up 149 yards and 14 catches on 16 targets and Yiadom sits at 10 for 123 on 13 targets. The tape backs it up as well, especially for Campbell, who got stuck covering RBs and TEs multiple times on Sunday in both zone (Clip 1) and man (Clip 2) to great success for the Rams.
The simple answer to fixing this is likely just less man coverage until the injured Dre Greenlaw returns. San Francisco have run Cover-1 at a 32% clip through 3 weeks - their highest coverage rate by almost 15% - and based on the results they simply don’t have the talent to live in that world. Zone won’t complete cover up talent deficiencies in coverage but it will make it a lot harder for teams to isolate Campbell and Yiadom in key spots.
It also has to be acknowledge that Matthew Stafford is still hooping at an elite level which played a big role in the Rams offensive success on Sunday. Despite being down his top two pass catchers and a handful of offensive lineman he was lights out all game. The 49ers will not always face QBs who can make plays in muddy pockets (Stafford was pressured on 46% of his DB) to take advantage of their mistakes as frequently as Stafford did.
While a 1-2 start is less than ideal, an early season skid is nothing new to San Francisco. In 2023 after a 5-0 start they lost 3 straight heading into their bye week before going to the Super Bowl. In 2022 they started 1-2, before going on to finish 13-4. In 2021, they started 2-4 in a season in which they won 10 games. Their next two games come against the New England Patriots and Arizona Cardinals, two teams projected to finish below .500 in 2024. Two wins and they are right back on track. Less than that? Questions might start being asked.