Struggling 49ers Ride Three Game Skid Into The Bye Week
3 weeks, 3 losses, and a whole lot of the same issues....
3 weeks, 3 losses, and a whole lot of the same issues. Heading into their Week 9 bye week the San Francisco 49ers sport a three game loss streak after starting the season 5-0. For the third straight week their lost came as a result of a leaky defense that couldn’t stop the opposing team’s quick game or rushing attack and an offense that was able to move the ball but couldn’t score turning it over on multiple occasions…
Offense - Lots of Yards Not Enough Points
Let's start with the offense. 460 total yards and a 53% Success Rate typically results in a high scoring output for a Kyle Shanahan led offense. But, for the 3rd straight week they finished 60 minutes with 17 points. The offense had 3 turnovers, 3 drops and was 2 for 4 in the Red Zone, all same issues that plagued them in the previous two weeks reared their head.
The running game was once again almost non-existant, with an EPA/P of -0.30 and a Success rate of 32%. Non-QB rushing plays averaged just 3.29 YPC and the offense was unable to run off the left side without star LT Trent Williams.
For the second straight week a 2nd half comeback fell short due to untimely turnovers by the offense, particularly QB Brock Purdy. Despite this I don’t think Purdy played that bad, or at least no worse than he has played all year, sometimes the turnover luck just doesn’t fall your way. If you compare Purdy’s per game stats from the 5 game winning streak to the 3 game losing streak there isn’t a drastic difference.
Weeks 1-5: 81% Adjusted Completion Percentage - 254 Yards - 2 TD - 0 INT - 1:1 Big Time Throw to Turnover Worthy Play Ratio - 8.18 Average Depth of Target.
Weeks 6-8: 75% Adjusted Completion - 254 Yards - 1 TD - 2 INT - 2:3 Big Time Throw to Turnover Worthy Play Ratio - 9.07 Average Depth of Target.
The biggest difference for Purdy is his turnover luck has run out. The Bengals game provides the perfect microcosm of what this looks like. In this first half play Purdy tries to find Brandon Aiyuk on an in-breaker over the middle in traffic, the ball is tipped at the line of scrimmage, then again by a sinking LB and falls harmlessly to the turf.
It’s an objectively bad choice by a QB that could have been intercepted four different ways but falls harmlessly to the turf.
Fast forward to the 2nd half. Similar play, Purdy trying to find Aiyuk on an in-breaker over the middle. Again a bad choice, LB sinks underneath and picks him off.
Play 2 is a bad throw by Purdy, but also a lazy clear out route from Jauan Jennings and poor route tempo and spacing from Aiyuk. It’s arguably less Purdy’s fault than the first one yet it’s the one he gets dinged for. Too much credit for the wins, too much blame for the loss, ‘tis the price of playing QB in the NFL.
The good news for 49ers fans is that Brock Purdy is playing just as well as he was at the start of the year, the turnover luck will likely normalize somewhere in the middle of where its been over the course of the 2nd half of the season and the offense should be just fine.
Defense - Struggling Run Defenses and Poor Back End Coverage
The bigger concern for San Francisco going forward? That would be the defense, a unit many expected to be elite from start to finish in 2023. In many people’s opinion, whether it’s fair or not, the defense is the primary reason for the 49ers three game losing streak. I’m not here to portion out who gets what blame but Sunday vs the Bengals was a objectively a tough performance to watch, especially in the first half. The Bengals offense, a very good offense when healthy, put up 31 Points and accumulated 29 1st Downs and 400 Total yards, all with an EPA/P of 0.25 and Success Rate of 56%. That’s about as good as gets for an NFL offense in any given week. The first half was strikingly bad with the only moments of reprieve coming on a goal to go fumble and a missed field goal. Once again the 49ers struggled to tackle (13 missed tackles) and failed to stop both the quick passing game and Bengals rushing attack (134 YDS rushing for 5.0 YPC).
Similar to the previous week versus Minnesota the 49ers struggled to defend quick passes over the middle, especially when Cincinnati got under center and ran play action. Burrow finished the game 28 for 32 with and an Average Depth of Target of 6.0 yards. And unlike last week the 49ers coverage unit doesn’t have the excuse of lack of pressures. Lead by Nick Bosa’s 9 Pressures, the defense had 24 total, to go with 4 sacks and 4 QB hits. Despite the quick pressure San Francisco got up front there were too many coverage lapses where the underneath defenders failed to take away easy throwing lanes.
Despite an overall poor performance there were some reasons for optimism going forward. In the second half, after some half-time adjustments that cranked up the aggression of the entire defense, the defense started to show improvements. The Bengals had 6 drives in the 2nd half; 3 ended in punts, 1 in a FG and 2 in TDs (one of which came on via a short field off a turnover). Only 1 of those 6 drives was longer than 40 yards as well. A big reason for the improved results was a drastic improvement in run defense. Despite allowing 134 yards rushing in the game the Bengals rushing Success Rate in the 2nd half was only 15%. The 49ers ability to get the Bengals behind on early downs in the 2nd half allowed their pass rush to get home more frequently. In the clip below, despite Tyler Boyd springing free over the middle Joe Burrow doesn’t have a chance to find him because the 49ers pass rush were able to pin their ears back and win quickly.
It wasn’t all perfect in the 2nd half but a noticeable step up from the 1st. Heading into a bye week the second half gives them some building blocks when it comes to making adjustments aimed at aligning the 49ers rush plan more tightly to their coverage, something the players and coaches have been quite vocal about.
In addition to some coaching points that are reason for optimism, help is on the way. First and foremost in the via a former Rookie of the Year in EDGE Chase Young. The 49ers sent away a 3rd Round pick in the 2024 draft for the former Top-5 Pick of the Washington Commanders, a player who ranks in the Top-5 in terms of total pressures and Top-20 win rate for 2023.
Additionally, LB Dre Greenlaw should be back to full health with the week off and the return of 2nd year DB Samuel Womack will help tighten up coverage issues on the backend.
What’s Up Next?
Week 9 comes at a fortunate time for San Francisco to get healthy and incorporate new faces. After their time off they travel to Jacksonville, the #1 overall seed in the AFC, and take on a red hot Jaguars team.