The Bills Finally Found A Balanced Offense
Josh Allen's super hero play style has not been good enough to push the Bills to the Super Bowl but a potentially more balanced offense in 2023 featuring Allen's best play might get them over the hump
Every since Josh Allen exploded onto the national scene in 2020, the Buffalo Bills have been a Super Bowl favorite. On the back of their MVP candidate they have won 3 straight AFC East titles and been to 1 AFC title game, but have yet to get over the hump and reach the Super Bowl. Despite the excellence of Allen and a stellar defense, they have lacked an ability to make that final leap. Much of that can been attributed to a lack of balance on offense. Josh Allen is an elite level QB who plays a distinctly chaotic but effective style of hero ball which is able to keep the Bills in every game, but a lack of overall balance and reliance on a few key players does not typically equate to sustained success over larger sample sizes. The Bills front office understands this and has made multiple investments to improve the weapons and offensive line around Allen in recent years, investments that through the first quarter of 2023 seem to be paying dividends.
Buffalo, in the past two off-seasons, has made a variety of moves to improve both their rushing attack and ability to win in the quick game. Whether through the draft in the form of RB James Cook (‘22 2nd Round Pick), TE Dalton Kincaid (‘23 1st Round) and OG O’Cyrus Torrence (‘23 1st Round Pick) or Free Agency with Connor McGovern (‘23 F/A), the Bills have sought to ease the burden on Josh Allen and create a more consistent offense that can make a deep playoff run. The early returns in the 2023 season seem extremely promising. The Bills overall and passing offense remains Top-3 in the league but the non-Allen run game has bumped its yards per game average up to 111.5 YDS/G an increase from the 84.2 YDS/G they averaged from 2020-2022. The advanced stats are just as good with Buffalo’s rushing attack ranking 4th in Rush EPA/P and 3rd in Success Rate up from ranking 18th and 9th respectively from 2020-2022. Adding an improved rushing attack to what might be the best version of Josh Allen and the Bills are really cooking with something through four weeks.
Allen started out slow in the 2023 on Monday Night Football versus his kryptonite the New York Jets but since then has settled in as one of, if not the best QBs in the league. Allen is the MVP favorite at +350 through four weeks, he ranks #1 in Completion % and Completion % Above Expected, Top-3 in TDs (9), Big Time Throws (9), and Passer Rating (106.7). The advanced stats are just as good where he ranks 3rd in both EPA/P and Success Rate.
He is also doing all this while averaging the fewest amount of rushes per game in his career, down to 1.76 Rush Attempts/Game from the 4.2 ATT/G he averaged during the 2020-2022 seasons. While Allen can still be a devastating runner when he needs to, he is not forced to do so to operate the offense, which is exactly what a Buffalo team that saw him play hurt for half the season last year wants to see.
Sunday against the Miami Dolphins might have been the best regular season game of Allen’s career, or at least his best since 2020 versus the San Francisco 49ers. His counting stats were tremendous at 21/25 for 320 yards and 4 TDs, but his advanced stats were even better in a big win over a red hot division rival.
Allen did all this without having to rely on just his usual brand of hero ball. He got complementary offense from his supporting cast that Buffalo has typically lacked in big games previously. The rushing offense had 104 yard and 2 scores with a 42% Success Rate and his pass protection only gave up 6 total pressures in the game. The Bills balanced offensive approach allowed Allen to be a complete quarterback and access the entire field.
Allen didn’t force anything on Sunday, an issue that has been prevalent in his career and even earlier in the year in his putrid performance versus the Jets (their only loss of the season). The excellence of the run game combined with pass catchers who are better underneath and with the ball in their hands allowed him to operate in the quick game, routinely getting successful plays from players like Dalton Kincaid or Deonte Harty (‘23 F/A) to keep drives moving.
Of course eventually the Bills offense will get behind the chains and be forced to operate at a disadvantage, but that’s when it’s nice to have a QB with possibly the most overpowered take over ability in the game. Allen still has the ability to drop dimes off his backfoot to the far sideline.
Or step up in the pocket and create until players like Stefon Diggs or Gabe Davis can find a sliver of space.
The Bills will need Allen to be amazing in order to win the Super Bowl there is no doubt about that, but him being amazing might be less off script magic and more quick game passes. Less running and more 3 step drops to keep drives on schedule. This new look offensive line and run game combined with a more composed and accurate Josh Allen is exactly the balance the Bills have been missing. It’s early in the season and a 17 game season is a long one but the new layers this Bills offense has added to go with their usual Josh Allen takeover button makes one of the most fearsome offenses in football even more scary,